Insanity

I drove through the central valley yesterday and I couldn't help but thinking we are all insane. It was hot as hell, with temperatures in excess of 110F, the air was so polluted you could barely see Mount Diablo from 20 miles away, and yet everyone was driving their monster SUV's as if there is no tomorrow. The freeways were packed even though it was Sunday.

Everywhere there were large scale developments of monster mansions baking in the sun. 4,000+ sq ft. homes that have air conditioners running full blast day in and day out for three quarters of the year. The other quarter they run heaters. Meanwhile, the occupants were probably out shopping in their gas guzzling 8 cylinders, buying more stuff to throw away before year end. No doubt their sprinklers were set to keep their huge lawns bright green too.

When you stop the car for more than a few minutes and get out in the open, you realize that this is no place for human habitation. It is as hot as an oven, there is no water, and there is nothing to do. Humans can only exist in a place like this because of cheap oil and coal. Oil and coal to generate electricity to run the air conditioners and bring in water. Just plain survival for more than a few hours in these conditions takes a fair amount of energy. Let alone doing so useful work.

And it is not as if the people living there realize their predicament or act what one could call responsibly. Far from it. They cool their entire houses to 72 degrees, they water football field-sized lawns, they take several showers a day, they fill swimming pools, they drive monster trucks, etc.

There mere existence comes at an enormous cost, yet they choose to live lavishly and luxuriously. One cannot shake the impression that they seem to enjoy wasting energy. They don't bother to live in a small house, or separate their room, or to turn off their cooler when they leave, or their lights at night, or anything else for that matter. They buy huge mansions, with open floor plans, and they heat and cool the entire spread continuously, whether it is needed or not.

In short, they behave as if everything is available in unlimited quantities. Any normal human looking at this objectively would have to conclude that they have lost their minds. Perhaps it is a good thing that so many of these homes will be foreclosed upon. At least it will cause a substantial cut in energy wastage.

Even so, it appears that sooner or later, this insanity will have to end.

sex and environmentalism

It isn't just a catchy title. The role of sex in environmentalism or lack thereof is deep and profound. It is also widely ignored. It goes beyond Arnold's lament that environmentalists have failed to make their cause sexy. Because some of the most sexy behavior is very destructive to the environment. There is nothing sexy about being frugal. Not unless times are hard, and even then displays of excess have followers.

Start with cars. If people bought cars for transportation we'd all be driving a sensible, high mileage and practical vehicle. But, as I have outlined in this blog before, if you don't know why people buy cars, ask any teen what the real value of "a set of wheels" is. Think about it, why do you need a big box with a 300hp engine to drive an average speed of 27 mph?

Or why do people travel? Remember I highlighted Bill Maher's statement that "people travel to get laid?" The opportunity to find new partners or causal sex is a major driver for the tourist business. Forget about those sight-seeing opportunities. Other than a different backdrop there isn't much to be had here.

How about fashion? Is not fashion intimately connected to sexuality? And what more is fashion than an excuse to throw away perfectly good items prematurely? Fashion is all about consumerism.

Why do teens buy gadgets like mp3 players, cell phones and cameras?

Or why build at 5,000+sq ft mansion? Why show off to your neighbors? Why, other than to show how important and powerful you really are?

Should you get a sailboat or a powerboat? As one guy once told me, "take a look in any marina and see where the chicks are."

Wastefulness in men is inherently sexy because it shows they can afford it. It shows they are a good bet for reproduction. They will be able to provide for the offspring.

So, it should be no surprise that wastefulness and power is an aphrodisiac for young women.

When something is so deeply imbedded in our brains, the chances for real change are minimal.

platinum certified consumption

It was on the news last night. Two Oakland homes, within mile from one another are vying for the title of most green house in the nation. They are Platinum LEED certified homes and that means they have the bragging rights for being the most environmentally friendly consumers.

Wait a minute? Did I say consumer? Something is clearly wrong with this picture.

One house, the newly built 4,600 sq ft "Margarido House" is a case in point. It is attempting to achieve the first LEED-H Platinum certification. The other house is older but extensively remodeled and quite a bit smaller.

First the good news: Margarido does some things well. It uses locally sourced products, recycled concrete and glass countertops and reclaimed ground water. It has underground storage for rain water. It has drought tolerant landscaping and plants. It also uses LED lights (nothing said about leaving them on all night though!).

Margarido also has the key token of environmentalism: it uses solar panels. However, even with all its solar panels it is not energy neutral. And that had the owner worried. According to the newscast he was planning to buy more solar panels. Buy, buy, buy baby. Buy your way to green!

What about the other bad news? I doubt that Margarido, for all its certification and hoopla can beat our energy use of around $500 a year for gas and electric. You can see our bills in earlier postings. Or our water use of around 35 gallons per day, including a vegetable garden that actually produces food instead of decorative cacti.

To say nothing of the wasteful 4,600 square feet, or the extensive remodeling that its main competitor underwent. What happened to all the materials they ripped out?

What Margarido and other Platinum certified houses are, is examples of a new breed of consumerism. Green consumerism. It may help the "economy" but I doubt it is good for our environment and it certainly won't solve our pollution problem. Better would be not to build Margarido and live in a small house. Better would be to grow veggies in the yard. But who gets platinum plaques for that?

blame the ocean

State and federal officials have long held the view that the decline of the Sacramento salmon was due to adverse ocean conditions. That conclusion, which sure pleased big agriculture, and endorsed the good works of the Army Corps of Engineers dam-building craze, also conveniently put the blame in a very safe place.

A more recent report still blames ocean conditions for being the immediate cause of the collapse, but it does include an acknowledgement that maybe, just maybe, river conditions played a minor role. Apparently poor ocean conditions were acting "on top of a long-term, steady degradation of the freshwater and estuarine environment" according to a study by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS).

How does that sound? Let me give you an analogy to make things clear. If a patient develops lung cancer, which surely could be described as a long-term steady degradation of their lung environment, they will ultimately succumb to a lung infection known as pneumonia. As a matter of fact, their death record will list pneumonia as the proximate cause of death.

The question is do you think the patient died of an infection? If you do, the delta dam builders may have a job for you.

pardee reservoir

Pardee Reservoir in the Sierras is the heart of East Bay Municipal Utility District (affectionally known as East Bay MUD)'s drinking water supply. It is also a "recreation area" where families can enjoy fishing, boating, and camping, according to the Pardee Recreation Area website. Now EBMUD wants to enlarge the reservoir so as to better serve its customers. No, EBMUD is not thinking of providing more recreation or better fishing. It is thinking of the growing suburbs in the East Bay, with their overly thirsty water-wasting families.

EBMUD, with its token environmental stance -the recreation area is closed during migratory bird season for example- is going to flood and destroy a unique landscape, drain the Mokelumne river, destroy its fisheries, all so its customers in the affluent East Bay suburbs along highway 24 and 680 can water their lawns, wash their cars, and flush their toilets with pure drinking water. ( in case you wondered if I forgot to mention drinking, note that the upscale suburbanites in the East Bay drink bottled water)

EBMUD is considering how the area will grow over the next 20-30 years. That is if we don't run out of food by then or get hit by some other disaster of our own doing. It is no doubt rejoicing the fact that California gave the go-ahead to add a fourth bore to the Caldecott tunnel. Ostentatiously there to reduce traffic jams that aren't caused by the the tunnel itself, the fourth bore will no doubt stimulate further development along the "680 corridor." More people will move into the near-desert area east of the Oakland hills and start watering and flushing as if they lived in Hawaii.

At a time when many agencies are considering removing dam sites and restoring the enormous environmental damage some of these sites have brought on, EBMUD is taking a leadership position by proposing to build a new and larger dam for Pardee. It will add 40+ feet of water to its present reservoir and drain the river to create an eyesore out of what is now one of the more scenic and attractive riverscapes in the state.

In the eyes of EBMUD however, none of that beauty can match the elaborately manicured, over-watered, and over-fertilized lawns of Lafayette and Danville.

GO EBMUD!

the recovery that isn't

Wall Street got ahead of itself on Friday. Thinking -wishing that is, the most common form of Wall Street "thinking"- that the recovery was at hand, the Dow moved into positive territory for the year. Unfortunately, today's news added a serious dose of reality, showing that not only is the recovery not there, we are most likely nowhere near the bottom yet.

The housing crisis that started it all is far from over. More foreclosures are waiting in the wings. A large number of these are part of the original problem, i.e. homeowners borrowing more than they could afford to pay for houses that sold for more than they were worth. Has anyone forgotten the 5 year rule? The 2004, 2005, and 2006 mortgages are just now starting to reach the end of their 5 year grace period. Then they will reset by 10X or more! How's that for a nasty surprise?

These mortgages were written near the top of the bubble, when home prices were highest and values most out of whack. Furthermore, they were the most "creative" ideas originating from the enormous pool of "talent" that Wall Street accumulated. That means they are by far the most problematic ones. These are the ones people will walk away from.

In the meantime the high rate of unemployment is adding substantial numbers of additional foreclosures, which will lead to a further crash in home prices.

I predict home values will decline another 25-35% before it is all over. "Fake" unemployment (the number the US government uses that does not include everyone who stopped looking for a job, who is working part time, etc. ) will rise well above 12%, with real unemployment closer to 20%. The dollar will continue to slide and we will start seeing obvious signs of deflation.

Deflation is already happening, and if you are paying full price for anything these days, you are paying too much. But so far deflation has been largely hidden or it was covered up by "sales" and "deals." Pretty soon that will go away too and people will see prices drop everywhere.

I stick to my recommendation, buy gold. Real gold that is. You may need it some day in the not too distant future.

fuel consumption

BP, a company that would like to be known as Beyond Petroleum, published its statistical review of world energy recently. According to the WSJ, the BP report has the best data of any energy company report. You can download the report and the statistics from BP's website. If anything, the report makes it clear that we are a long way from being "beyond" petroleum. So much for advertising.

But there is some good news. Fuel consumption in the US in 2008 declined compared to 2007. Which goes to show you that there is nothing better for the environment than a good recession. US fuel consumption in million tonnes of oil equivalent declined from 2,359.6 to 2,299.0. It is not a stunning decline, but it is a start, you could say.

South and Central America did not "participate" in this decline and their consumption rose from 563.5 to 579.6. Note that the US alone uses almost 4 times as much fuel as all of Central and South America combined.

Europe and Eurasia also saw a small rise in consumption from 2,956.9 to 2,964.6. So did the Middle East, going from 577.6 to 613.5. Africa's consumption rose from 341 to 356, and Asia-Pacific went from 3,816 to 3,981.9. The latter gain was almost exclusively due to increased fuel use in China. Unfortunately, most of China's energy use is from coal. No wonder the country has now surpassed the US as the prime greenhouse gas producer.

Along with the US, the UK, Ireland, and Australia saw declines.

BP did mention that reserves are more or less stable (no whopping new discoveries), but it is happy to announce that we will have oil, gas and coal for decades to come. Pollution and global warming will get to us before we can run out of carbo-combustibles.

Happy breathing!

more ocean trash

It seems quite a few people misunderstood my posting about ocean trash. My concern is not so much with the trash being in the ocean, as opposed to say it being in "its proper place," whatever that might be -the landfill?- My qualm is with the trash itself. Its very existence.

I do agree that it is nicer to live in a community where people put their trash in trash cans and where they don't leave stuff lying around. However that is not my worry with ocean trash. To be quite blunt, the trash in the ocean does not bother me directly. I never see it and I never run across it.

What is worrisome is that we produce so much trash, not where we put it. That is what makes our lifestyle unsustainable. And that is what we need to change if we are going to survive on this planet.

What is deeply worrying is the fact that we produce and throw away perfectly good stuff at alarming rates. The fact that we seem to need a new car every three to five years -and why you could ask? What makes those new cars any better than the car we have? And why do we need a 400 hp car to drive 55 mph -and 25 mph during rush hour?

It is these old cars and other stuff that end up in the oceans.

Like the computer that we need to replace every two years, or a new cellphone that we can'd do without, or a new TV, or new kitchen appliances, or what have you. The fact that our society makes it so that we are forced to throw out good items and buy the latest gadget. In the case of computing that is a direct statement, the older machines simply won't work with today's software, even though today's software is only very marginally more capable (and often less useful) than yesterday's version. In other cases, the "must have" is more indirect and we are told we "need" to buy the latest gadget lest we be seen as failures by our peers.

Those "must have" gadgets have become so unappealing and so uninspiring because the designers can't possibly think any more significant changes to make. Yet Madison Avenue knows how to package them so we feel we can't possibly do without them. Call it peer pressure.

Designers vary the color, or the "style" or some other unimportant but very visible attribute on a regular basis. The technical term for these unnecessary changes is fashion. Fashion has high visibility so your neighbors will know if you refuse to play along. They will know that you are "falling behind," and are no longer "in their league." They will know when to shun you and treat you like the outcast that you are.

ocean trash

So what did we learn from the recent Air France disaster? And this is in no means meant to be disrespectful towards the victims and their families. But it appears the biggest story is missing from the popular press. I.e. the oceans are very polluted.

If search planes mistake simple ocean trash for the remains of a broken-up airliner there is something very wrong with the oceans. A broken-up airliner leaves a lot of debris. Note that the patch identified by Brazilian authorities was complete with pallets, passenger seats, and an oil slick large enough to be credible. Yet it turned out to be nothing more than "ordinary" ocean trash. That is how polluted our seas really are.

According to some reports there are trash "patches" the size of Texas filled with junk, leftovers, oil and other pollutants. It is apparently not that rare to find old refrigerators or washing machines floating around in the middle of the Atlantic. Trash collects preferentially in areas where currents meet and where seas are more or less calm.

Clearly this is not going to keep going without having some effect on human populations. Sure, it could go on for another 50-60 years, but sooner or later we will pay the price for our unsustainable life-styles.