arguing about climate

Recent data show that the Arctic Ice is melting faster than previously thought. If the current trend persists the Arctic could be free of ice in summer as soon as 2013, or some five and a half years from now. The previous estimate wasn't much better in the scheme of things, putting the first occurrence in 2040, but it makes a difference. That difference is 27 years, hardly worth mentioning, yet it may turn out to be quite pivotal for a number of reasons.

First off, 27 years is a long time for humans, and it is well beyond the attention span of a nation like the US. Second, and perhaps quite a bit more important for most decision makers of today, 27 years is outside their window of interest. The majority of these people are baby boomers pushing 60 and 27 years is longer than their remaining life-expectancy. Six years is not. Thirdly, and this is the most critical, it appears that our predictions are off and that trends are accelerating. That means we may be further along our heating curve than we previously thought.

When the Arctic Ice melts it is predicted to set in motion another serious acceleration of trends. The ice normally reflects up to 80% of the sunlight striking it, and when it is not there, much additional heat gets absorbed. In this case, the replacement of shiny ice with nearly black sea water that absorbs better than 90% is about as bad as it gets. You can rest assured that this will be the topic of much debate. And if by some statistical fluctuation, the melt does not materialize in 2013, the naysayers may gain an important political victory.

Unfortunately, climate change is but one symptom of a much larger problem. And that problem is the rapidly growing world population. And the even more rapidly growing appetite of that population to live a grand life. And given our advanced technology and the vast reserves of accessible energy, that population is free to increase its largely irrational and wasteful consumption. Such consumption is usually called the standard of living. It sounds much better and quite a bit more encouraging to raise your standard of living than to be wasteful and irresponsible.