the fuel efficiency hoax

You can tell the primaries are near. Congress and the President are in lockstep about increasing biofuel use and getting better mileage standards for cars. The first item will delight Iowa farmers, while the second will appeal to California voters. Both states have early and crucial races and every dollar invested here is sure to bear fruit to aspiring candidates and their party.

This morning in a ceremony at the Dept. of Energy, the president signed a bill that will require automakers to increase fuel efficiency by 40 percent to an average of 35 mpg by 2020. Ethanol use will be ramped up to 36 billion gallons by 2022. Bush said the bill will "address our vulnerabilities and dependency on foreign oil." He said we will be "a nation that is stronger, cleaner and more secure." The new requirements are also expected to save motorists $700 to $1,000 a year in fuel costs. And therein lies the problem. Every time something gets cheaper, people use more of it. And that is bad news indeed.

A report by the World Resources Institute undermines the claim that boosting fuel efficiency standards for cars is a critical step to curb global warming. The author of the report was quoted as saying "Total emissions from this part of the transport sector are dependent on how many people drive, what they drive, and how they drive." The report blames a booming population that is ever more reliant on cars, and real-world driving conditions and poor maintenance that undercut all efficiency gains. The report argues for lighter cars and driving less. That sounds like common sense to me.

By the way, there is good evidence to support these claims. Since the early 1980's fuel efficiency for both cars and airplanes has increased dramatically, but overall CO2 emissions have grown by 25% in the US alone. People have more than made up for all the gains by buying larger cars and driving more. Fat chance reducing emissions in a hummer-crazy nation !

Unfortunately the only thing that reduces CO2 emissions under real life conditions is higher gas prices. Whenever gas prices go up and supplies run low, people drive less. They also car-pool more. A report by Lawrence Livermore National Lab found that the density of traffic over the Altamont pass is inversely proportional to gas prices. The higher the price of gas, the less traffic there is. And that makes sense to me.

But raising gas prices is a death-on-arrival strategy for any politician. Even keeping gas prices high would be considered a crime in this nation. Already the public is fuming at the high price of gas even though we pay far less than other nations. Nations whose real standard of living is as good or better than ours. Think what you may but there isn't much happiness sitting in traffic jams for over an hour a day.

And every time gas prices go higher, worries about terrorism and homeland security surface. It is not for nothing that oil barons like Bush are seen as strong on national security. Surely, prices are high because evil individuals are interrupting our gas supply. Or worse still, they are using OUR gas.

Of course one could try to convince people to drive less, or to buy a sensible car instead of an overweight SUV, but good luck with that. Even though everyone claims they want to save the planet, don't count on it when it comes to buying a vehicle. At that time the primary urges of the mating dance take precedence and our aspiring environmentalists are just as likely to drive out the door with an oversized, overloaded, gas guzzling vehicle that gives them a commanding view of the road and impresses their neighbors. Not some sensible "girlie" car, as our friend Arnold would say.

Those who are guilt ridden and those who want to appear cutting edge and "in", may even shell out the extra money to get a "Hybrid" badge on their monster machine. But who are they fooling ?

The reality is that we choose to be dependent on foreign oil. We only import about half of what we use. And we surely waste more than half of what we buy by hauling around an unnecessary 2,000 pounds of shiny metal, trim, leather, cupholders, stereo equipment, GPS's, and the like. Not to mention our grossly overweight and out-of-shape bodies.