A new round of climate talks is about to start in Hawaii. Not surprisingly, no major breakthroughs are expected. What is expected though is that the US will try to force developing countries to drop their tariffs on green technology. Such a move would benefit multinational corporations with US headquarters, like GE, CAT, and others. The aim of the talks is thus to shift more wealth into our pockets, not to fix the climate issues. In other words, these are trade talks just like any others.
It may be that our leaders don't get it. Maybe they think it is easy to fix. It may also be that they don't care. Or maybe they think their enormous wealth will protect them no matter what and so they better add something to it before it is too late.
In any case, the upshot of all the green talk will be more economic activity, not less. More activity translates into more resources consumed and more energy used. No matter how you do that it means trouble. No matter how efficient or green or renewable the resources and the energy, it is not what we need. As a matter of fact it is the opposite of what we need now.
It may be hard for people to understand but our problem is very simple. There are too many humans on the planet using too many resources. In doing so, these humans are pushing the limits of what is possible. In many instances the limits have already been pushed beyond natural boundaries into what is known as "unsustainable" territory. That means it cannot go on forever.
How long it can go on for is anybody's guess, but chances are "not as long as we would like." To be more specific, many predictions show breaking points around 2020, 2030, or 2050. To be sure, some of these will be wrong. We often over and underestimate what can happen. But let's assume that we are totally off and that 2120 is the correct number. Does that make you feel any better about us as a species ?
There are also unforeseen events that may cause accelerations or decelerations. If the world plunges into a deep recession, the time would be extended. If population growth slowed significantly, ditto. The same could happen if pandemics kill large numbers of people or if afflictions such as sedentary life-styles, obesity, and diabetes shortened life-spans considerably.
The mere fact that people are told also matters. It causes shifts in behavior that affect the outcome. But either way, trouble is ahead. There are just too many variables that are too close to the edge. The current population growth curve cannot be supported, no matter how successful we are at solving problems or finding new resources. It has to slow down.
The key issue is whether it can stay where it is when it levels off, or whether it will have to go down from there. There are reasons to believe the latter is far more likely. And that is based not just on estimates, but on the simple fact that it is quite common for growth to overshoot. It happens all the time and it happens to nearly every growth parameter.
The unfortunate fact is that a massive retreat in population would be a very painful thing to experience. So the sooner we stop growing the better. And the sooner we start cutting back on resources and energy consumption the easier it will be to avoid unpleasantness later.
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