a long slowdown with a silver lining

It appears the US economy is in for a long slowdown. By all measures, the current recession is going to last much longer than anyone anticipated. Partly to blame for this error in judgement is the current happy-go-lucky attitude that says all downturns are quick and painless. It won't happen this time around. There are warning flags everywhere and some predict the worst is yet to come. If so, we could be in for several years, if not a decade of pain, much like what the Japanese experienced in the 1990's.

If this would turn out to be true, there will be one bright silver lining. A massive slowdown in the US would likely be followed by slowdowns everywhere else. And if the global economy slows down, consumerism will slow down too. That means less waste, less pollution, and less greenhouse gases. It also means some renewable resources such as fisheries, wetlands, and forests may have a chance to recover. All in all, it could be a good thing for our habitat on the planet.

However, for an economic downturn to have a measurable effect on the environment, it will need to be long (very long by our standards) and profound. That means lots of pain and not just at the pump. It also needs to see an extremely slow recovery and not some sudden exuberance that blows out all the stops and nullifies in months what took years to accomplish.

It has been said that short downturns are worse for the environment. Some have said that people may turn to cheaper but dirtier fuels such as coal. Others claim people will keep inefficient cars and appliances longer and therefore consume more energy. All that is irrelevant of course and in many cases replacing an older more inefficient car with a new one causes far more pollution and waste than holding on to the old model. 

It is something hardly anyone is willing to acknowledge. Nobody ever takes into account the amount of carbon and pollution needed to produce the new car. Replacing working items with newer models is a consumerist mantra. It is a feel-good situation meant cover up wasteful consumption.

In any event, I have said it many times before, efficiency does not matter. What matters is the absolute amount of pollution and greenhouse gases produced. Nature does not care about efficiency. It is irrelevant. 

What is true however, is that short downturns barely matter. And if followed by a period of accelerated growth, the total effect will likely be worse than if the economy had grown at a slower but steady pace instead.

There is another silver lining to all our misery and pain. If we experience a number of prolonged slowdowns it may prevent us from hitting a wall anytime soon. For that to materialize, the world population will have to go down. Fortunately, the West appears set for negative growth. Here the population is aging and replacement is in many instances not keeping pace with the expected decline. 

The rest of the world however is growing at a rather furious pace. Currently it is set to more than make up for Western decline. A long global slowdown could put a damper on such enthusiasm. We may not like it, but there is little doubt it would be good for our long-term survival as a species.