another baby boom and a perfect storm

We are in the midst of a new baby boom. Last year more children were born than at the height of the post-war baby boom (1957). If you think that is good news, think again. We are rapidly running out of room on this planet.

If you live in California, you may think -based on your travels through our renowned deserts- that we have room a'plenty. Unfortunately, we humans need more than just land. We need water and California is already having trouble providing water to its existing residents, let alone to newcomers. Sure, most of California's water goes to (big) agriculture -another one of those welfare programs for the richest of the rich- but that agriculture provides much of the US, Europe and Japan with fruits and vegetables. Like all irrigated ecosystems, California is losing farm land every year. California's irrigation has already depleted valuable fisheries and it is bound to cause more trouble for the oceans in the future.

Climate change will only accelerate these trends. Our consumption of fossil fuels continues to grow unabated and the effects of greenhouse gas accumulations continue to surpass our wildest predictions. That means sea levels will rise more than our worst case scenarios, and desertification will be more extensive. These trends will further reduce agricultural areas.

According to the latest research we are headed for a perfect storm when it comes to growing world populations and dwindling resources. That storm is predicted to hit around 2030, give or take a decade. What that means is that it is close enough for many of us to start witnessing its effects during our life-times. Unfortunately for some of us, it may become the reason our life-span will turn out shorter than expected.

It seems most likely that such a storm will hit more or less out of the blue, much like the credit crisis we just experienced. All these types of events, be they financial, biological, ecological, or what have you display similar patterns of behavior. Mathematically speaking, these events are very similar.

So while many will see it coming, and there will be clear telltale signs and warnings, most people will ignore these, and a significant number will think the scenario impossible or absurd. It seems highly likely that the run-up to the storm will be characterized by behavior that is truly excessive, and -in retrospect- incomprehensible.

The same happened during the housing crisis. Prices kept rising and everyone thought it would never end. People took on more and more risk, and were feeling more and more optimistic about the future (one reason we are having a baby boom now). And then very suddenly the bubble collapses.

The only difference being, that a resource crisis will be many times bigger and many times more painful than a financial crisis. Tens of millions will die, and many more will be faced with starvation, malnutrition, infectious diseases,  and other mortal dangers.