population explosion

According to the US census bureau, there were an estimated 1 million people on the planet in 10,000BC. Apparently since that time the human population has increased continuously until the present day. That seems a bit suspicious to me, but so be it. The rate of growth has also increased continuously and there is only one period of significant deceleration. That happened in the 1,000 year window centered around year 1.

In 10,000BC , it took an estimated 1,000 years or 10 centuries for the population to double. There are some minor fluctuations in the estimates but these are probably due to the guesswork involved. By 1,000BC we have an estimated 50 million individuals roaming around. Then the population suddenly starts doubling in approximately 500 years or five centuries. By year 1 we have 170 million people or just 30 million shy of the projected 200 million. And here we see the only noticeable drop ever. It takes another 600 years for the population to reach 200 million.

Starting around 600 the rates accelerate once again. 650 years later we have 400M. Then 550 years later we have 800M and 105 years after that we have 1,600M or 1.6 billion. We are now in 1905 and the doubling rate keeps shrinking. 65 more years until we hit 3.2 billion, then 40 years until we hit 6.4. Luckily, the Census predicts that it will now take 44 years (a whopping 4 extra) for the rate to grow by 50%. You could say, whew, finally!

So what is behind this incredible explosion? It appears that two factors were key. Both involve access to new sources of power and energy. One is the switch from manual and horse-driven labor to machinery and the second is the discovery and wide-spread use of oil. There is little doubt that the so-called "green" revolution is responsible for the biggest boost of all. Clearly what matters most is how much food we can produce. More food equals more people.

Unfortunately our food production system is unsustainable in the long run. It is a system whereby we input almost 10 times as much energy -from oil- as we get out. We get the 10 fold extra by burning through an energy source that took hundreds of millions of years to accumulate. And we are going through it in 100's of years. Clearly something is out of whack here.

When the oil industry gleefully reassures us that we are many decades away from peak oil, we may end up feeling relief. The gas-guzzler crowds feel vindicated that once again, the doomsday prophets have failed. But ask yourself this simple question. If we are decades (or even centuries for that matter) away from reaching peak oil, shouldn't we be scared shitless? We are talking about a resource that took 100's of millions of years to get to its current state, and we have been using it for what? 100 years? And we are within a few tens or hundreds of years of depletion?

One thing is for sure, the population graph won't level off nicely like the US census predicts. It may soon start looking like the stock market of the year 2,000. Except that this time around it won't be virtual or paper losses on the way down. It will be real people.

the stimulus check is in the mail

The government wants us to do our patriotic duty and spend money to "save the economy." That is why we will all find money in our bank accounts, or for those of us who don't trust the electronic networks, checks in our mailboxes. I take it the poor and uneducated fall primarily in the latter category. That must be why many retailers are offering to turn rebate checks into a gift cards.

These "caring" retailers will also add 10% to that check for any person who does so. Imagine that, you get $300 from the government and those nice people at Wal Mart will give you an extra $30 to spend. Why not add another gimmick to this already gimmicky scheme? Before you spend your stimulus money, better think again.

Retailers can generously add 10% to all those checks because most people leave a fair amount of cash "un-cashed" on their gift cards. There are tons of used gift cards out there with $4-10 left on them. The tendency is so common and so widespread that gift cards have become a favorite tool for retailers to "tax" consumers. Not only do they lock you in -you will now spend all that money at Wal Mart and nowhere else- they will also get the leftovers free of charge.

California law makers have recently stepped in and a new law in the state forces retailers to cash out small amounts of leftover cash on gift cards. That little leftover does nothing to stimulate the economy but it adds directly to the bottom line. Big corporations love to play these tricks on unsuspecting consumers.

There are other reasons for holding on to the money. One is that the economy is in dire straits and a little bit of money like that is unlikely to make a big difference. When people are falling behind on their mortgage payments, a one time $300 check is unlikely to save their home. Especially when that house is now worth $100K+ less than the outstanding mortgage balance.

Before you know it you may be out of a job, out of a house, and bankrupt to boot. Add to that rising food and energy prices and maybe you would do better trying to save your rebate for a rainy day. Not that we will get many more of these once global warming kicks in.

Let's not forget the bigger picture though. What this economy needs is a major overhaul. An overhaul that won't be possible without a major contraction. We simply have to give up on our unsustainable life-style and go back to the basics. That does not mean give up on modern comforts or technologies as some would have us believe. But it does mean we should stop consuming for the sake of consumption.

We need to stop churning through stuff. And that will take some doing. Not in the least because so many people got so rich making us do so. These guys are not about to give up without a fight. They are not about to roll over and smile. So it is time for us to fight back. Fight back by ending this senseless consumption that is treating our valuable resources as if they are cheap and unlimited. The time of endless supplies is over. We can see the end in most cases. Granted it is often more than 50 to 100 years away, but even that should be scary enough for us to sit down and think again.

One hundred years is not that much time. Furthermore, serious hardship is likely to start much sooner as resources become more scarce and prices will skyrocket. Sure there will be speculation and false alarms, and it would not surprise me to see two or three episodes where prices drop dramatically and everyone laughs at another doomsday scenario gone bust. Sooner or later though reality will kick in and there won't be any more excuses. Better get ready before it is too late.

let's not forget about india

With all the talk about China we sometimes forget that India too is growing at breakneck speed. And while that means good news for the world economy in the short term, it is bad news in the long run. Because, like China, India has a huge population. India is the "other" nation with a population in excess of 1 billion people. And that means that any minor change in the standard of living translates to huge amounts of extra consumption and waste. Keep in mind that standard of living primarily measures consumption.

Take the Indian car market for example. It is growing so fast, Western and Asian car makers are drooling like mad. Renault's chief executive was quoted as saying" "It offers significant potential for profit growth." That is an understatement to say the least. The Indian car market doubled since 2000 and it is set to double again in another 8 years. Today 7 out of every 1,000 Indians have a car. By 2010, the projected number is 11 in 1,000. And what is most frightening is that this explosive growth is nowhere near saturation. We are a long way from one car per person, as is common in the West.

More cars leads to more driving and more driving means more greenhouse gases. India is one of the nations rejecting pressure to cut greenhouse gases. Already in 2001, India ranked 5th in the world in terms of carbon emissions at 251 million metric tons of carbon. The number is expected to triple by 2020. India accounts for only 5% of the current global carbon emissions but its contribution to the emissions growth will be very significant. As a developing nation, India did not sign the Kyoto protocol.

More cars require more roads. And roads are being constructed at a rate of 14 km per day (almost 10 miles a day), double the rate of 2005. More roads not only destroy valuable forests and agricultural land, they also enable people to live bigger. More roads translates into more sprawl. And that means less land for food production. And for India that could translate into big time trouble.

India is a major food producer at nearly 3% of the world production. Slightly more than half the land is arable and there are considerable water resources. Many areas support year round irrigation and can produce two or three harvests a year. But India is one of the countries that is most severely threatened by climate change. A greater frequency of droughts and floods would have a devastating impact on India's agriculture. Experts have warned that the country is ill-prepared for such events. Effects of global warming will affect India more than China or the US. Any additional stresses from construction will only make matters worse.

India is risky for other reasons. It has a highly diverse population with large groups vying for power. Civil war is never far from the surface and when stresses mount, violence is common. Much of it is embedded in the country's religions, that are often at odds with one another. The crumbling caste system, India's public secret, is also adding significant tension and periodic uprisings by the untouchables or dalits are symptoms of larger ills. Additionally, India has a rocky relationship with its neighbor Pakistan, another nuclear power.

Like China, a furiously growing India could become a major world problem in the near future.

too successful

Our main problem isn't pollution, global warming, or resource depletion. Our main problem is that we are too successful. Some would say it is a good problem to have. But it is a problem nonetheless. There are too many humans on the planet and too many are added each and every day. These humans also live too long and use way too many resources during their stay. We are becoming fat and rowdy guests who are raiding the fridge and the pantry and leaving our garbage piled up in the living room. It seems we have overstayed our welcome.

There are things we could do to improve the situation. These things may not totally solve our long term problems, but they could surely buy us a lot of extra time. And they might even keep our impact below a critical level so it remains sustainable for a while to come. We could consume less and leave less trash around. We could be friendlier to the other inhabitants, and we could reduce our numbers. But all that takes long term management and international scope and both of these have eluded us consistently. For all our bragging about superior intelligence, experience shows that human behavior is driven by instincts as basic and as generic as those of any other species around.

Humans don't like words like instinct applied to them. Because instinct evokes images of automatic and non-intelligent behavior. Behavior that persists even when it is obviously harmful and will lead to premature death. But that is exactly the type of behavior we display each and every day. Since we are in the midst of it, it is not easy to see. But it does become apparent when we observe others. Unfortunately, we are not different, even though we'd like to think so. It is quite easy for humans to sit around and debate matters intelligently. Solve the big problems in the world. But as soon as those same people walk out the door, and into their eight cylinder, 5,000 pound SUV, you can see where the rubber hits the road.

Intelligence is easily suspended in our everyday lives. It helps us to solve problems when we get lost, or when we need to build shelter. But before such projects get of the ground, they are already cluttered up with tons of unnecessary garbage that serves no purpose other than to impress the neighbors, show status, flatter our egos, and lure mates.

Such behaviors are good and fine when there are two or three billion people on the planet. But if six billion try to do the same, things get problematic. And the truth is that those six are all outdoing the former three. It is a double whammy. And soon we will have nine billion, who will all try to outdo us. Obviously this cannot go on forever. The trouble is that rather than stopping it now and doing something smart, most would prefer to escalate even further and then crash headlong into the wall.

Every time we have a savings and loan crisis, a stock market bubble, a subprime problem, etc. you can see this scenario repeated. Each and every time people can clearly see where it is headed. But each and every time it ends the same way: with a hard crash. Nobody ever steps in to stop it. And the participants are all too happy to drive of the cliff at 100 mph. So much for intelligence.