the return of the gas guzzlers and more waste

Unfortunately, gas prices have dipped considerably in the past few months. That has people "changing" their driving habits again. Some psychologists and other luminaries, who probably never heard of addiction before, had already been wondering if Americans had truly changed their minds on driving. Give me a break ! There is no way people could change these habits even if they wanted to. They are addicts. 

All summer long they were like smokers sitting through a long flight, eager to light up as soon as they got off the plane. Now that they are on safe ground again, they are fuming like the old smokestack.

Today we read that Ford has recalled 1,000 workers to build more F-150's next year. The F-150 is one of those gas-guzzling monster pickups that people had been craving but were forced to hold off on because of the $4 a gallon gas prices. Now Ford is convinced there is pent-up demand "from business users who need it for their jobs." Seriously, that is what they said. If you believe that you believe in Santa Claus too. It is the season after all.

F-150's are largely bought by people who don't need a truck but who have an intense desire to show off in public. People who are no doubt very insecure and have wet dreams about Rambo at night. I don't doubt that there are a few small businesses who legitimately need a truck but one look at the F-150 will tell you that this truck was not designed for that crowd. The F-150 is designed for the average commuter who wants to tell other commuters, look at me, I am powerful.

Needless to say this is another dumb decision. Gas prices are sure to go up again as soon as people start driving again. Now is not the time to load up on cars that will soon have to be abandoned because you hate the $100+ fill-up at the pump.

Unfortunately, our great politicians missed another chance to do something smart and to prevent future headaches. If the government is going to give money to Ford, they should at least tell them to stop making these types of vehicles.

Meanwhile, the bankers on Wall Street are going to pay $40 billion in bonuses, fees, pensions and other goodies to their "hard-working" executives. That is more than they will pay for all their other workers combined. And guess where they will get the money? Bail-out? BINGO. You said it!!

footprints

For a while now you have heard talk about your carbon footprint. Maybe the British oil company "beyond" petroleum told you about it. They did that so you would think they were the good guys and keep buying their gas. Besides, drug dealers can tell addicts anything they like about their drugs, it really does not matter. Addicts have what is called inelastic demand. They want their fix no matter what you tell them about the benefits or drawbacks of the product.

Despite all the talk about carbon footprints, and other awareness building efforts relating to global warming, nothing much has happened other than ever increasing carbon shoe sizes. It has gotten to the point where most people are starting to feel numb, and many Republicans are already past that stage and full tilt into mockery as evidenced by their "drill baby" chants at the convention. Can you imagine the passengers of the Titanic singing, "sink baby, sink?"

Unfortunately, carbon footprints aren't the only trouble awaiting us. There is what the Global Footprint Network calls the ecological footprint. How big are our overall resource requirements? And the water footprint, how much water do we need per capita to live our lifestyles?

Needless to say that when it comes to footprints, North America, and especially the US are on top of the list. But the rest of the so-called Western World isn't far behind. China and India are also big players but mostly because they have so many people. 

Our current footprint exceeds what is available on the planet by nearly threefold. What that means is that if we just wanted to bring everybody up to our current level, we would need three planets to do it. Maybe all those people wanting to save the third world should think about that?

Our water footprint is similarly out of whack. Not only do we insist on pouring good water down our toilets everyday -so we can have toilets inside the house and won't have to freeze or be inconvenienced in the middle of the night. We also waste it on growing beef, cotton, and our other favorite drug, sugar.

In short, if we want to keep living happily ever after, we in the West will have to change our lifestyles quite a bit, and in the very near future too. Because most indices predict disastrous crashes before mid-century.

If you think this cannot possibly happen, just remember what they used to say about housing prices. Plain old common sense will tell you that nothing, absolutely nothing can keep going up forever. Think about that before you turn on your TV and drink the kool-aid.

numbers that matter

Forget about can-do spirit, yankee ingenuity, free markets, democracy, and other reasons often invoked to explain economic prosperity. Take a look at the real data. When Europeans arrived in North America, they found a continent that was virtually empty -it wasn't really but the diseases they imported quickly made that happen- full of goodies that the locals were unable to exploit.

North America was a continent where conditions were rather unfavorable for those living there, but very favorable for new intruders with more advanced technology. North America was by far the most favorable continent for exploitation. Africa, while closer to Europe, had too many nasty diseases and other competition, and even today Europeans have a hard time surviving in Africa. Australia, was simply too extreme and the landscape cannot support large numbers of people regardless of their technology.

Such geologic, ecologic, and other basic facts can explain most of the variability associated with a population's success or failure. This premise is not new, and Jared Diamond has based his best-selling novels, "Guns, germs, and steel," and "Collapse," on it. 

Population data can also be used on a smaller scale to explain otherwise curious events. The current economic downturn for example is mainly due to demographics. So was the preceding expansion and the series of bubbles that followed. But now things are changing. Here is some change you can believe in, my friends.

With an aging baby-boomer generation, and not enough young people to replace them, the economy of 21st century America is in for some serious downturns. The process has already started and it is very likely not going to end before 2025. There may be brief upswings, but overall the trend is down and down we go.

The baby-boomers grew up in good times. Their net worth is higher than that of their parents. They never experienced a serious downturn or a major war. Consequently, they did not save. With more money to spend, times were wild. Now those same baby-boomers are deeply in debt but they still have many years to live.

First they spent their cash, and then they borrowed more. All of it went into luxury goods, travel, McMansions, spas, V-8 cars, trucks, boats, jetskis, etc. Now those baby boomers are getting older. They can no longer afford their life-styles, either because they overspent or because their old age limits what they can do. There are excess oversized houses on the market and no buyers. The rush to monetize assets to cover debt is leading to a huge deflation of value. There are not enough young buyers and too many elderly owners.

It is a disaster that can be postponed, but ultimately the reckoning will come.

As for the current crisis, I stick to my prediction, made weeks ago, that the Dow won't hit bottom until we hit 7,000 or less. Despite a recent drop in gold prices, I still think gold is the best way to go to weather the upcoming storm.

follow the money and other tales

Those looking for change may be in for a surprise. If Barack Obama wins, which now seems all but certain, his successful fundraising may come to haunt his presidency. According to the latest numbers, Obama has raised well over $650 million and that is more than any other presidential candidate ever. And no, these are not the little $25 contributions coming in over the internet, as the party would want you to believe.

Fully three-quarters of Obama's fundraising is big money donations. Big, big money. The type of big money that is looking for favors. And who is there you may ask? How about those investment bankers in need of a government bailout and in fear of more regulation? Some of the people who got Wall Street into trouble may be advising McCain, but the people running those banks, the "greedy Wall Street bankers" are the ones filling Obama's coffers. Those same bankers were more than a little bit ticked off at McCain's language of late.

The GOP depends on two constituencies that have little in common: the fundamentalist christians, and the superrich elite. The elite provides the money, while the christians make up the bodies. McCain may be a maverick but he should know better than antagonize the money men. Sarah maybe delivering the christians but without the money it won't matter much. Those money men have already run over to the other side. They weren't too thrilled with all the talk about "cleaning out Wall Street."

What that also means is that Obama may soon do a Bill Clinton on that tax break for the middle class that will be funded by milking the superrich. We have heard all these promises before. All that talk about change is nothing new. The only thing that ever changes is the "face" in the White House. As I have indicated before, that face is just a face. An actor or puppet, beholden to the puppeteers who hold the money strings. It appears this will soon be more true than ever. $$$

sarah palin fan club

I've been thinking about starting a Sarah Palin fan club. Face it, Sarah is a star. Even those who don't like her have to admit that the Veep candidate has star power. Real star power. Her performance on SNL was a smash hit. Her rallies attract as much, if not more enthusiasm than the famous professor Obama. Never mind the dull Biden, or our hero McCain. They all pale in contrast to pale-in.

I think some people don't like Sarah because they are afraid of her success. But take a look at main street. How many politicians have a hairdo and glasses that have become a fashion in its own right? And how many have her lively personality? Sarah is a champion of the right without having to be Ann Coulterish. She is warm and charming. Well-liked. Not spewing venom -or if she is, she does it in such a nice way you don't even feel it.

No, I don't agree with everything Sarah Palin says. Actually I disagree with almost everything she promotes or believes in. But boy, what a trip she is. We haven't had this much fun in politics since.., well since.. I don't know when (maybe Arnold?)

carbon tax

With the upcoming presidential elections, some are worried, while  others think it is about time we should have a carbon tax to fight global warming. But what is a carbon tax other than higher gas prices? And we all know how well that went. Everybody is already rejoicing the fall in gas prices. As soon as gas hit a paltry $4 a gallon, Americans were crying foul.

I have said it many times. If we had just one politician worth his or her salt, they would be calling for $5 a gallon gas minimum. $10 would be much better. That is the best way to discourage wasting oil and gas. It is also the only way that works to reduce greenhouse gases. This past summer, driving was off almost 10%, airlines were cutting back flights, and conservation was on everyone's mind. Our greenhouse gas emissions showed a decline for the first time in 30 years.

Where are our politicians when you need them? At least McCain is open about it and has no trouble admitting he isn't serious. There is something to be said for honesty, even if it is honesty to pander to popular demand.

McCain wants to drill his way out of the "problem." Never mind that it won't work to reduce gas prices or to remove our dependence on foreign oil. What it does, is admit that we do not care more about greenhouse gases and global warming other than saying we do. If we did we would realize that high gas prices are the solution not the problem. If he did, Al Gore would move out of his 35 room mansion and go live in a sensible house.

Obama, the professor and self-proclaimed conservationist, just wants to increase fuel efficiency. We all know -or should know- how that works. It doesn't. Fuel efficiency has made enormous strides over the past 25-30 years, yet we keep on consuming more gas. Fuel efficiency just encourages people to drive bigger cars and drive more. It encourages car makers to load up cars like stuffed McMansions on wheels.

The "other" Obama remedy is technology of course. Green technology. Technology that will help us use more energy and produce less waste and pollution. Never mind the physics, my friends. If you demand it, the great Obama will show his magic and lead the way to greenhouse utopia.

By the way, it is shameful that candidates have now raised almost $1 billion to pay for their election campaign, while decrying the waste and greed on Wall Street. It is more than the bail-out package for big banks.

Yes, Mrs. Obama and McCain, have jointly received about $1 billion in support, about $700 million and $300 million respectively. Wait until all those donors come to the White House to ask for favors. See what will be left then to do the right thing. Why worry about democracy in the Middle East? How about America, folks?

five billion dollar sugar water

Coca-cola, riding on the image of America and the sugar in its bottled water reported better-than expected profits Wednesday. For the third quarter Coke's net was nearly $2 billion. The company has net income in well in excess of five billion dollars for the twelve months that just ended. All of that for sweetened bottled water, juice mixtures, and some, mostly citrus, fruit juices.

Ironically enough, despite promoting the image of American cool, Coke's revenues largely come from abroad. Coca Cola, for all its Americana is by and large a foreign company. Unlike its competitor PepsiCo Inc., whose profit is 70% US based, 81% of Coke's profit comes from outside North America.

Over the last four decades, Coca Cola has roamed the globe and largely displaced traditional local and healthier drinks in favor of its highly sweetened caramel bubbly and the image of success. On the home front, Coke is losing ground against its rival PepsiCo.

No wonder the world is getting fatter. So much for the image of success.