obese and depressed

The American public is seriously unhealthy. More than half are overweight and nearly 1 in 4 suffers from a mental illness, usually depression. How come people in the richest nation on earth are so unhealthy and unhappy?

There are ugly statistics wherever you look. Some show that all the gains society made in combatting infectious disease are now nullified by atherosclerosis, diabetes, hypertension, asthma and other conditions. Obesity plays a key role in all of these.

But maybe you think I am a pessimist and you point out that people live longer lives today than they did in at other times in history? You probably heard the average life-span of 40 years too many times. Clearly people are living longer now? But do they? If you take out infant mortality the difference is not that great.

Furthermore, the key determinants of infant mortality are clean water, sewer systems, and vaccines. By about 1950 most of these issues were solved. There are actually data showing that infant mortality is on the rise again in the US. Surely the numbers are low but the trends are disturbing.

But let's not get distracted. What is it that makes Americans so unhappy and unhealthy? How about being bombarded for hours on end with commercials that tell you how inadequate you are, how you would be so much better off if you owned this or that car, or ate this or that food, or drank this or that beer?

How about being told that in order to be cool you need a TV in every room, a blu ray disc player for every TV, cable and Tivo everywhere, the latest gadget cell phones, new PCs, a larger home, more furniture, a bigger yard, an outdoor kitchen, etc.? Hard to keep up with all of that. Work, work, work. Work and endless insecurity. You are always one paycheck away from being laid off or fired. Not to mention the ever mounting bills, the credit card debt, the home equity loan, the mortgage, the fear of losing your home, the inadequate health insurance, you name it.

Guess what America, it's time to throw out the TV. Time to stop listening to all those voices that keep telling you to buy more stuff, to eat more, to consume more, to drive more.

Throw out the TV, park the car and go for a walk.

value

The holiday season is upon us and in America that means we must buy new stuff. For the retailers in America, the holiday season can make or break their year. Because it is now that the public (aka the consumers) will be hitting the stores to buy more. Not that they need anything anymore, but they are still driven to buy more. Like the rats that self-stimulate.

Unfortunately -or fortunately for retailers if you like- most of the new stuff will end up in the garbage before summer. That is right, the half-life of consumer items in America is three to six months. Consumer items have no value to consumers. After the thrill of buying, they are nothing but useless tokens of past "fun" that need to be removed to make room for newer tokens and future fun.

We are constantly told how low prices "benefit" consumers. And that is technically correct. If you are a consumer, i.e. a person who consumes goods, the the lower the prices, the more you can consume or use up or totally destroy. Yes the latter two are synonyms of "to consume."

If you want something of value, then low prices do not benefit you. Low prices mean low value.

Low prices to not benefit people, either rich or poor. They do not benefit the environment either. Perhaps you understand why low prices do not benefit the environment, but why should you worry? The truth is that low prices do not benefit people either. They will not make you satisfied or happy. They will just leave you hungering for more.

Food is very valuable to people. It is one of the most valuable items on the planet. It sustains life. Yet do people value food? They don't. They have access to cheap food and they consume it, adding on layer upon layer of fat. America is overweight because America does not value food, America consumes food.

When you buy something cheap you do not value it. It becomes cheap. It is easy to replace and you don't think much of throwing it out or losing it, or just trashing it. And that is exactly what we see happening. People surround themselves with cheap items and then quickly lose interest in them and thrash them -or push them into the forgotten corner. Sadly, they are also left unsatisfied and longing for more. That too is something retailers love. They even have a name for it, it is called commoditization.

Retailers know people want new things. So they constantly change what they have even if no changes are warranted. The overwhelming majority of changes are meaningless or trivial. Some are annoying and others represent a step backward. But that does not matter so much as long as the new things are different from last year's things, so people will want them in an attempt to satisfy their never ending hunger for value.

There is one very simple remedy to this madness. If you want value, stop consuming.

walmart

Walmart Stores Inc. is the world's largest public corporation by revenue. Many also see it as the quintessential American enterprise. It was founded by Sam Walton in 1962 and today it has a market cap of $208 billion. It operates stores all over the nation and in many foreign locations as well.

You don't get to those kinds of numbers selling trinkets unless a whole lot of people love your stores. And what is it that people love so much about Walmart? Look no further than low prices. Walmart is all about cheap stuff. Almost anything you can think off is cheaper at Walmart. And that, we are told is "good for consumers."

Not surprisingly, there are also many who hate Walmart. Walmart has been accused of racism, sexism, resistance to union representation, pressuring employees to vote for specific parties during national elections, and many other not so nice things. Walmart has over 2 million employees, not an insignificant number. However, even if half of them were unhappy, the number of unhappy people would be very small compared to the tens of millions of shoppers who want to get things cheaply. It should therefore not surprise you that actions against Walmart have not been very successful.

Furthermore, Walmart has regained support recently due in large part to the economic crisis. That has led to a much more favorable public opinion than was the case only a few years ago. Back then it seemed that Walmart was the corporation people loved to hate. Now its low prices are a godsend to many families in trouble. Unfortunately, Walmart and what it stands for, is precisely the reason why these families find themselves in their current predicament. Greed and over-consumption are at the core of the current crisis.

Walmart is all about excessive consumption. Excessive consumption "on credit." Not the type of credit you charge to your visa or mastercard, although that too is an issue. No, credit as in not paying true value for goods and services. It starts with paying low wages and meager benefits to workers in order to outcompete local stores. This behavior impoverishes neighborhoods all around the country. But it doesn't stop there. There is also the credit as in not paying the true cost of items, especially the environmental costs. That is done by making extensive use of oil to ship in items from low cost producers who are often not subject to environmental regulation. It is augmented by forcing cut throat arrangements with producers. Such arrangements force them into even worse arrangements with their workers (who thankfully are in foreign countries so we don't see them). Ultimately the weak pay the price.

The whole philosophy of paying less, especially paying less than fair value is what will ultimately destroy our environment. If we really want to get control over issues such as global warming, greenhouse gas accumulation, widespread destruction of rain forests and other valuable habitats, we will have to go back to basics. That means we will have to be willing to consume less and pay more for what we use. We will have to stop roaming around the planet in search of whatever it is that we think we lack, and focus on local communities and locally produced goods.

Don't hold your breath.

good for your health

A story posted on CNN today confirms what I have been saying all along. Recessions are good for you. You smoke less, eat less, eat out less, and drive less. Add in less shopping and more exercise and you can see why we all need a recession. Given the current wave of obesity, make that a long recession. Nothing will do more for public health than a severe reduction in consumption.

The recession has other beneficial effects as well: it decreases air pollution and the production of greenhouse gases. It slows global warming. There is less traffic and less cargo being shipped around. We decrease ocean pollution. All those things are good for the planet (which really means our habitat on the planet, because the planet itself does not really care) and ourselves. Another good thing is that people rein in their reproduction and that helps with overpopulation.

It appears that even the increased stress from losing one's job, or worries about providing food and shelter for one's family is rather insignificant compared to the gains we make elsewhere. Remember, there is no free lunch, ever. And to stay on theme: suicides do increase during recessions and depressions, but that effect is so small as to be negligible.

If anything, the research confirms how flawed, misguided and unhealthy our economic model really is. Rather than bring good things to us -isn't that the way we think about a thriving economy? That it is good for us?- a thriving economy cuts down on our life-expectancy, both as individuals, and as a species on this planet.

No, you are not better off when you have a bigger house, a bigger SUV, a bigger TV, and a bigger stereo. You are not better off when you can buy all the soda and food you like. You are not better off when you can travel to faraway places. Those things don't make you healthier or happier. All that talk about health and happiness is just false advertising and it is about time that someone cracks down on it.

You will not feel better if you eat out. You will just get fatter and fatter. You will not be better off if have a faster car. Quite to the contrary, you may feel frustrated more often in the inevitable traffic jams. You will not be healthier if you have a bigger house. You will just have a bigger headache to worry about and you will have to yell louder to find your family members. You will not feel better if you take long hot showers, you are drying out your skin and may contract a deadly lung infection. The list goes on and on.

sick economy

The IEA estimates that greenhouse gases will drop by more than 2% for 2009. About 3/4 of that drop is due to the recession. The anticipated fall is greater than any previously recorded. Something is clearly working when it comes to climate change. We can reduce our economic activity for example.

If the drop proves anything it is how sick our "economy" really is. How it is an economy of consumption and waste. And to think that some people would like to fix it. To what purpose? So we can make the planet uninhabitable sooner rather than later?

Don't get me wrong. Economic activity is good. Humans need a thriving economy. But it has to be an economy that creates long term value. And that is not something our present economy does. Quite to the contrary. We have an economy that is all about slash and burn. It is all about waste and consumption.

Now you may argue, so what it has served us well. But has it? Not unless you are one of the richest 1% in the country. Otherwise your net worth has most likely decreased rather significantly. You may not feel that way (yet) and the constant brain washing in the media will certainly try to make you think otherwise, but the facts are in. Everyone is constantly getting poorer while the richest of the rich get wealthier.

It has also not made you happier. Here too the facts are undeniable. More people than ever are depressed or suffer from stress. It is a stress imposed by trying to keep up with the consumer society. Trying to outdo the neighbors by buying new stuff and spending more money. Companies constantly try to get you to spend money you don't have. It is called credit. And if you indulge in it, it will enslave you forever. It is worse than heroin.

Our economy does two things really well: 1. it destroys our habitat and threatens our long term survival on the planet, and 2. it shifts wealth from the masses into the hands of a very select few. So select that you, the average American citizen, are not one of them. Not by a long shot. You are one of those being robbed blind and you may not even notice it.

So while you may hope for economic recovery because you need a job to pay your bills, you should think about what you are getting yourself into. Because you are not an innocent player. You, with your consumerist habits, are part and parcel of this economy. Your desire to always throw out things and buy new stuff is the "engine" of this economy. And it does not have to be that way! You can easily put a stop to it.

Begin by buying local. Only buy stuff that has value and will last. Get rid of your cars and do some exercise. Throw out your TV. The list of things you can do to help is endless. And guess what? Doing these things will create local jobs. Real jobs that have value because they are worthwhile. Think about that!

Cheap imported stuff is the problem, not the answer. Walmart is not the solution. Walmart is the problem. Walmart is a big machine that serves only one purpose. To make the Walton's richer. And it does so by ripping off the poor. Walmart can sell you stuff below cost, because it does not pay the full cost of what it buys. It does not pay for the waste and pollution it creates. And it uses cheap offshore (read slave) labor to create its widgets. But Walmart is not alone. It is just one of the many corporations that form the core of our sick economy.

sex and environmentalism

It isn't just a catchy title. The role of sex in environmentalism or lack thereof is deep and profound. It is also widely ignored. It goes beyond Arnold's lament that environmentalists have failed to make their cause sexy. Because some of the most sexy behavior is very destructive to the environment. There is nothing sexy about being frugal. Not unless times are hard, and even then displays of excess have followers.

Start with cars. If people bought cars for transportation we'd all be driving a sensible, high mileage and practical vehicle. But, as I have outlined in this blog before, if you don't know why people buy cars, ask any teen what the real value of "a set of wheels" is. Think about it, why do you need a big box with a 300hp engine to drive an average speed of 27 mph?

Or why do people travel? Remember I highlighted Bill Maher's statement that "people travel to get laid?" The opportunity to find new partners or causal sex is a major driver for the tourist business. Forget about those sight-seeing opportunities. Other than a different backdrop there isn't much to be had here.

How about fashion? Is not fashion intimately connected to sexuality? And what more is fashion than an excuse to throw away perfectly good items prematurely? Fashion is all about consumerism.

Why do teens buy gadgets like mp3 players, cell phones and cameras?

Or why build at 5,000+sq ft mansion? Why show off to your neighbors? Why, other than to show how important and powerful you really are?

Should you get a sailboat or a powerboat? As one guy once told me, "take a look in any marina and see where the chicks are."

Wastefulness in men is inherently sexy because it shows they can afford it. It shows they are a good bet for reproduction. They will be able to provide for the offspring.

So, it should be no surprise that wastefulness and power is an aphrodisiac for young women.

When something is so deeply imbedded in our brains, the chances for real change are minimal.

more ocean trash

It seems quite a few people misunderstood my posting about ocean trash. My concern is not so much with the trash being in the ocean, as opposed to say it being in "its proper place," whatever that might be -the landfill?- My qualm is with the trash itself. Its very existence.

I do agree that it is nicer to live in a community where people put their trash in trash cans and where they don't leave stuff lying around. However that is not my worry with ocean trash. To be quite blunt, the trash in the ocean does not bother me directly. I never see it and I never run across it.

What is worrisome is that we produce so much trash, not where we put it. That is what makes our lifestyle unsustainable. And that is what we need to change if we are going to survive on this planet.

What is deeply worrying is the fact that we produce and throw away perfectly good stuff at alarming rates. The fact that we seem to need a new car every three to five years -and why you could ask? What makes those new cars any better than the car we have? And why do we need a 400 hp car to drive 55 mph -and 25 mph during rush hour?

It is these old cars and other stuff that end up in the oceans.

Like the computer that we need to replace every two years, or a new cellphone that we can'd do without, or a new TV, or new kitchen appliances, or what have you. The fact that our society makes it so that we are forced to throw out good items and buy the latest gadget. In the case of computing that is a direct statement, the older machines simply won't work with today's software, even though today's software is only very marginally more capable (and often less useful) than yesterday's version. In other cases, the "must have" is more indirect and we are told we "need" to buy the latest gadget lest we be seen as failures by our peers.

Those "must have" gadgets have become so unappealing and so uninspiring because the designers can't possibly think any more significant changes to make. Yet Madison Avenue knows how to package them so we feel we can't possibly do without them. Call it peer pressure.

Designers vary the color, or the "style" or some other unimportant but very visible attribute on a regular basis. The technical term for these unnecessary changes is fashion. Fashion has high visibility so your neighbors will know if you refuse to play along. They will know that you are "falling behind," and are no longer "in their league." They will know when to shun you and treat you like the outcast that you are.

spare the air and running off cliffs

The past weekend set new records in several Bay Area locations. Saturday was also a "Spare the Air Day." Do you think people bothered? I doubt it. I went running on Saturday and people were driving busily up and down the freeways, causing traffic jams everywhere. You might think that because it was weekend day, people would try to drive less.

On weekdays, spare the air rarely amounts to anything. People "have to" go to work. They need to participate in the rat race so they can afford to keep up with the neighbors. Or make the payments on that overpriced McMansion they bought years ago. Or pay for a new "hybrid" car. In short, they need to do their patriotic duty and keep up the consumption and consumerism that is the engine of our wealth.

Weekends are no different. After working hard all week, who can blame us for wanted to go on a little trip? Or drive junior to the little league, and then to soccer, and then to chess, and then.. Well, you get the picture. We have obligations to fulfill. We have things to do, important things, things that cannot be derailed by a spare the air announcement.

Ever seen a herd of cattle run off a cliff? I doubt that you have seen this happen in real life, but surely you have seen this in one of the many nature shows on TV? Or you may have read that the plains Indians used this technique to hunt down bison?

Surely you must have wondered, what could possibly possess these dumb animals to be so stupid as to run off a cliff? You must have wondered, what were they thinking? Well, search no further because the answer is at hand. We, humans are running off a cliff too. And what are we thinking? Probably the same thing those cattle thought.

We have always done things this way. It has always worked in the past. We must follow the herd. We must go with them or be left behind. Surely they know what they are doing. Things are fine, so why worry. Aaaahhh, a cliff... Never saw that coming!?!?

adaptation

Just saw this youtube clip by a comedian, entitled "People are never happy." In it the character makes fun of people who complain about airlines. It really made me think, because I used to fly a lot and airlines really do treat their customers badly. You get no room, bad food, poor service, etc. The airline "experience" is not one to remember. Certainly not for frequent flyers.

However, as was pointed out in the clip, we should be overjoyed. We can fly. We can get from one end of the continent to the other in approximately 5-6 hours, and we are extremely likely to arrive in one piece. It is fast, safe, and relatively inexpensive. Compare that to what transcontinental travel used to be like only a century ago. It took months, one had to endure hardship almost continuously, it was dangerous, it was very expensive, etc.

And therein lies a key lesson about happiness. We constantly adapt and adjust our expectations. And that is one reason why so many people are unhappy, despite being very well off. They always want more. They always think things will be better if they only had that bigger house, that faster car, that latest gadget.

However, as soon as they have it, they take it for granted. There are more gadgets to acquire, better things to possess, more experiences to have. It is a never ending quest. And they are never satisfied.

What does this have to do with the environment you ask? Well, everything, really. It is this never ending desire to want more, to consume more, to waste more that will ultimately drive us to extinction. And we won't be any happier for it. We are just deluding ourselves thinking we need this or that item, adventure, vacation, you name it.

Our consumer society constantly reminds us of all the things we don't have, all the experiences we are not part of, etc. etc. And like defenseless addicts, most of us cannot resist. We need our next hit to be happy.

remembering America

Have you ever wondered how people will remember America? As the empire that rose from a distant European colony and prospered after it removed the natives? As a nation that lived above its means and spent money it did not have? A realm that bloomed because of cheap oil and became so utterly addicted and dependent on that oil that its entire foreign policy was dictated by oil wars? As a people that elevated senseless consumerism to a new religion? A fat overindulgent mass behaving like a bunch of undisciplined teens wreaking havoc on the environment and wasting resources as if there were no tomorrow? Zombies brainwashed by never-ending commercials, urging them to spend and spend more, to consume and consume more, to trash and trash more?

carbon credits

It has been interesting to watch the Obama administration come to terms with our current predicament. It is for sure that we are in the worst crisis any of us have ever seen. This is no longer a recession. It is a true depression and a depression of the sort that only comes around every 100 or so years. A 100 year flood.

First the president was more or less realistic. I say more or less because he did paint too rosy a picture. That was before the State of the Union. At the State of the Union, he was extremely optimistic and hopeful and it was probably necessary because the previous tone (which I call the rosy picture) was no doubt too depressing for the general public to bear. 

Then he unveiled a budget with some positive steps. Unfortunately it is still a budget that focuses on the wrong ideas. It does not call for less energy consumption, it calls for alternative energy. It does not call for the abandonment of car traffic, it puts money into rebuilding highways. Obama calls it his "work on the foundations," but it appears the work is of a restorative nature only. It is not about rebuilding the foundations. It is about patching up and shoring up the existing foundations. And that is unfortunate. Because we need to rebuild those foundations.

We are slipping and sliding deeper into depression. From an environmental perspective that is truly good news. The consumer economy that was built on horrendous over-consumption and waste was a real environmental disaster. And I am not talking about the Bush policies per se. I am talking about ordinary citizens driving several large SUVs, building enormous McMansions and vacation homes, roaming around the globe on numerous vacations, buying goodies left and right only to trash them and replace them with newer goodies in a few days.

The Bush policies only did what could be done to support to this idiotic destructive behavior. The very people who despised Bush for his environmental record, were driving SUVs, filling up trash cans, and destroying nature as if there were no tomorrow. But perhaps because they threw some of their trash in the recycling bin, they felt better about themselves? Who knows?

The Bush policies made it possible for the consumer economy to do what everyone wanted it to do. These weren't Bush's ideas either. It all started with a man, many now consider a hero and one of the best presidents we ever had: Ronald Reagan. If there was ever a man who truly believed in environmental rape and destruction it was good old Ronnie. Unfortunately the world will all pay for the excesses of Ronnie's hare-brained ideas for many decades to come. 

Maybe good old Ron did not know any better? Suffering from Alzheimer's and coming from Hollywood make-believe, the cowboy of Santa Barbara may have thought the world was really all about glamour and indulgence. He may have truly believed it was his destiny to turn America into a giant movie-studio where people live the lives of fantasy, unaware of the destructive impacts of their actions. He may have thought prosperity was all about replacing real life with one big movie. A place where everyone can escape from reality.

Unfortunately, the movie is over now. The screen is dark, the nasty room lights are on, and we are kindly ushered back onto the cold and rainy streets. Places where things are tough, where reality bites, where people suffer real hardship and die real deaths, where mortgages have to paid, and where no one can wait for a knight in shining armor to magically fix all problems. No Hollywood endings here.

We are talking about some real work on the foundations. Work needed to put those foundations back into reality and away from Disney make-believe. Work needed to build foundations that can withstand a real flood.

california: the long term forecast

Ever wondered what will happen to the Golden State in the next decade or two? Well, the trends are there for everyone to see. It does not look so good to say the least. Of course, any dismal outlook needs to be tempered by the notion that California is very important strategically for the US. 

So important that the young country went to great lengths to tame the badlands and near-deserts around what was once the dusty Pueblo de Santa Maria de Los Angeles. The impoverished pueblo became a metropolis known as Los Angeles. 

In the process the fertile Owens valley was laid to waste. So too was northern Baja California, but that is not our problem you say? It doesn't stop there though. Hundreds of dams were erected, the "other" Yosemite valley flooded, and the Sacramento river delta depleted of one of the finest salmon fisheries anywhere; its ecosystem forever changed. Such was the cost extracted to colonize the Southland and turn it into concrete and golf courses.

It is clear that the country will go to great lengths to preserve access to the Pacific and to keep California thriving. If something were to happen to California, a breakup of the US would become a reality.

I suspect the US will eventually break up, but it may be a long time in coming. The trends that affect California also affect the country as a whole and the forces driving towards a breakup are very strong. I am not speaking of political activism, acts of savvy business people, deeds of brave heroes, or overall sentiment. In my opinion these are only responses to, and outward appearances of a set of much  stronger underlying currents.

The first problem California will have to deal with is desertification. It appears that by 2030 the desert will reach well into what is known today as Northern California (but is in reality in the middle along the N-S axis). What that means is that droughts will be frequent and severe. Since Northern California not only supplies water to itself, but also contributes significantly to the Southland, that does not bode well for agriculture or human habitation.

Unless another mega-diversion project gets started, or unless we are willing to pump tons of energy into desalination, California agriculture appears on the skids. California's agriculture is entirely dependent on irrigation. The irrigated area is relatively small (smaller than Ohio's agriculture for example), but the value of crops grown here is very high. Agriculture is big business in the Golden State.

However, mega-projects are expensive and will only postpone the inevitable. California's long term outlook is poor. Over time, California will probably follow the example of Iraq. Once known as the Fertile Crescent, the cradle of civilization, the region between Tigris and Euphrates is now a salt-encrusted desert where barely anything grows.

The second trend is an aging population. This trend affects the whole country and is especially pronounced in the dominant ethnic group, Caucasians. California is seeing a shift as whites are already a minority in the state. This trend will only accelerate further. Influx into the state is dominated by non-whites. The non-Caucasians living here, also have much higher birth rates.

Newer populations will shape the state. They are more conservative, less well off, and more heterogeneous. The demographic trends will continue to erode the housing situation over the medium term. The State is now wildly overbuilt and its housing problems could well lead to an accelerated decline that further impoverishes the State. California may become a series of protected beach enclaves where rich people hide from the poor masses all around.

The third trend is an exhaustion of cheap resources. The climate for innovation is disappearing. Not because of any policies or politics, or the lack of smart people. Quite simply because the State is running out of cheap land, cheap water, cheap labor, and a large consumerist throw-away market. The key to Silicon Valley success was the ample availability of all four. The fourth is disappearing as quickly as the first three now that half of the American households are done spending on gadgets. Silicon Valley for all its fame and creativity depended heavily on consumers willing to throw out its goodies after a few years, so as to replace them with newer and "better" versions.

California, it appears, is riding into the sunset.

less trash

The LA times reports that the current economic crisis is leading to less trash at landfills. It reads:"For a commentary on California's economic health, visit its landfills, where disposal rates are hitting record lows." Apparently, Puente Hills Landfill, "among the nations largest," noted a 30% decrease in tonnage recently.

First, it proves what I have been reporting all along, that we are a throw-away economy. According to some reports, 90% of what we buy ends up in the trash within six months. If you want to call that economic health -as the Times seems to think- welcome to idiocracy. Have some more kool-aid.

Second, it proves that the economic slowdown is good for the environment. Better than the "green economy" or any investment in "alternative fuel." Environmentalism is about slowing down and consuming less. Our current approach to the environment is like that of an obese person who is looking for alternative therapies instead of eating less and moving around more.

Third, it also shows that our current economy is unsustainable. It is based on churning through resources at ever faster rates. No matter how you slice it, something like that is not sustainable in the long run. And if churning hits high values, the "long" in long run becomes very short indeed. We have become like locusts, and locusts do not survive for very long.

I do not advocate recession, or depression -because that is what we are seeing now, but it appears to be the only way to get us to change our behavior. Much like out-of-control gas consumption was unstoppable until prices rose, it looks like we will need a long and deep depression to kick our bad consumerism habits. 

Common sense has failed, and to get it back we will have to experience some serious, lasting pain. But don't worry. It is coming your way. Don't be fooled by the temporary upswing -the Obama effect- because it is temporary. I have said it many times before and I will keep on repeating it, the worse is yet to come. The Dow will go down to 6,000. It may even go lower. And buying gold -the metal, not mining stocks, but actual bullion- is a smart thing to do.

While I hope we can avoid it, it may get so bad that paper money becomes real paper again.

Meanwhile, keep up the good work, and reduce trash.

zero net worth

Half of the American population has a net worth of zero. You read that right, zero. They are worth nothing. They own nothing of value and they are deeply in debt. They are also about to lose their jobs if that has not already happened. Nevertheless those 150 million citizens and residents still need to eat, find shelter, get medical care, get retirement, and get an education for their kids.

Meanwhile the Bush administration is trying to free up offshore drilling. You have to give it to Bush, he is persistent until the very end. He will run into a wall at a hundred miles an hour and keep going until he makes contact. On Friday, effectively the last day of his administration, he managed to open the door for some more environmental damage. Fortunately, it won't matter much.

How about those fancy white shirts, designer suits and ties? Guess who are the major contributors to Mr. Obama's inauguration party? How about the Wall Street crowd? How about those dressed up in the costumes of deceit? Mr. Obama already "owes" more in favors than several of his predecessors combined, so why worry? Living on credit is our way of life.

There are Americans whose net worth, while collapsing all around them, is still astronomically high. These fortunate souls -or should we say greedy?- will do all that is in their power to safeguard whatever they have left, while trying to get some additional handouts and favors. Only it is hard to see who will pay them now.

For almost three quarters of a century now, the American economy has consisted of wizards shuffling wealth from the masses into the hands of a few. Starting after world war two, and employing the latest discoveries in psychology, marketing, and rip-off technology, these "architects of fake prosperity" have managed to suck the world dry.

At first they provided some marginal value, but soon enough they learned that selling hot air was both more profitable and a faster way to riches. They favored an economy based on senseless spending. Spending for the sake of spending. They convinced the American public that such spending was happiness or better than happiness. They lured people into exchanging their life's work and their life's savings for ever bigger cars, bigger homes, more stainless steel, and more useless gadgets.

Now the party is about to end. And maybe that is a good thing, although it will surely be a very painful end for most.

save, save, save

More wisdom and advice from the WSJ. The front page today brought the alarming news that Americans are starting to save. This is surely frightening in a country where two thirds of the economy depends on consumer spending. The Journal points out that this trend is "Aggravating Nation's Economic Woes." 

The article implies that this "paradox of thrift" is the wrong medicine for the recession. This is not so different from soon-to-be-ex President W. pointing out in 2001 that we should do our patriotic duty and shop. Cut from the same cloth?

First of all, even if we wanted to, we Americans can no longer spend like we used to. We spent too much money recently, and almost all of it wasn't ours. Now we have to pay the bills, and in many cases suffer the economic consequences. Some will end up on the street and nearly all will end up much poorer than they were. In the end that is not so bad as all that wealth was nothing but a lot of hot air.

Second, a consumer-driven economy based on wasteful spending is not sustainable in the long run. The sooner you take it apart the better. Better in the sense that it can be done with less turmoil and less suffering. This economy does not need a rescue, it needs to crash. However painful that may be. It needs to be replaced by a more sane system.

Thirdly, finally something good is happening for the environment. What Al Gore and his 35,000 sq foot mansion and his Nobel prize could not accomplish, the recession will.

Even though conservative papers like the WSJ will eagerly point out that recessions lead to cuts in "green" energy and "conservation" plans, this does not matter. Less consumption is always preferable and better for the environment. Nature does not care about efficiency, it only cares about the absolute amount of pollution and resource depletion. The less resources and energy we use, the better.

Much of what is called alternative energy and the green economy is just a disguise for more spending and more consumption. It is not the way to go. Replacing your good possessions with "better" ones is bad for the environment. No self-respecting environmentalist should give in to this lure. Throwing away functional items is ALWAYS a bad idea.

As for saving, it is an essential skill for survival. Never mind bogus slogans such as "your patriotic duty," or the idea that you could become a white knight and save the economy. Neither is true. You will need to save if you and your offspring are going to survive in the end.

You need to stop buying stuff you don't need, and stop burning fuel for no reason. It isn't just good for the environment. It is good for you.

Happy New Year

I wish everyone a happy New Year. It probably won't be "happy" in the usual consumerist sense, but if we can transcend the quest for items, and learn to worry about things that really matter, happiness is just around the corner.

As for the housing crisis, it isn't over yet. In some areas the worst is yet to come. Many more fancy-ARM-mortgages have yet to reset and when that happens foreclosures will go up another notch. California is likely to be hit very hard since over 65% of these fancy credit schemes were written in this state. Housing prices will fall another 10-15% in the best areas.

More job losses too are to be expected, especially in the retail sector, where the numbers were especially poor this holiday season. The whole service sector, by now the most important part of our fluffy hot-air economy, will see huge declines. But manufacturing will not be safe either.

China and India are in for some really nasty surprises. They may find themselves sliding backwards faster than their recent meteoric rises. As for the rest of the world, expect some serious instability in the Middle East. The fallout of Bush's democracy experiment (which was nothing more than a scheme to make his friends very rich) is yet to come.

In short, all is set for another "interesting" year.

2008

2008 may turn out to be a good year for the environment. Thanks to sky-high oil prices followed by a financial crash, many people have decided to drive less and fly less. They are also traveling less and spending less. All of that is really great news for our survival on the planet.

To recant an old phrase with a new meaning, when it comes to pollution and destroying habitats: it's the economy, stupid. What is wrong is not oil, inefficient light bulbs, oversized SUV's, global warming, etc. What is wrong, plain and simple, is too many people using too many resources.

Since 2/3's of our economy is in consumer spending, and 90% of that spending ends up in the trash within 6 months, it should be rather clear that we need to change our ways. It should also be clear that this cannot be done without "damage" to the economy. What we affectionately call the economy is really a huge churning waste generator.

We need to reduce our spending and consumption rather dramatically if we are to stand a chance of surviving for much longer on this planet. "Much longer" could be as short as 50 years but it may well be 500 to 1,000. If you think that is absurd, just remember that 1,000 years isn't all that long in the scheme of things. I doubt that it will take that long though. All future predictions are fraught with error so we need a bit of a fudge factor. A couple 100 years is in the noise, when it comes to planetary events.

So, even though you may feel 2008 was an annus horribilis, look at the bright side. At least we are on the right track to saving our existence. Happy New Year.

duplication

Here is one fundamental culprit of environmental destruction. It is called duplication, or to be more numerically correct, quadruplication or quintuplication. It is the basis of the consumer society that we live in. Let's start with a simple example: the toilet, often called the bathroom or restroom for modesty reasons.

It all started with an outhouse located some distance from the main dwelling, or, when space was tight in a lean-too building. That made good sense as toilets are associated with smells and sounds that are somewhat obnoxious and distasteful. 

Having an outhouse can be problematic, especially for the elderly and the obese and those who cannot walk easily. It is also a chilly experience in winter especially in those climates that have harsh winters. To say nothing of night time evacuation, something that may affect the younger, the elderly, and the infirm. The night pail with cover provides some relief but it is not an appealing solution.

To solve these problems engineers devised a remedy that -all things considered- is very wasteful and very inefficient. The remedy is the flush toilet with siphon. The siphon is a device, a kink in the tubing, that retains some water and thereby blocks offending smells from rising up. But it also prevents material from going down, and it needs a certain amount of water to block the pipe.

So we flush. We are so used to flushing that many of us can no longer imagine a world without it. Save for those who are involved in athletic activities, or visit parks, or do outdoor labor, where porta-potties provide relief, the "civilized" among us always flush.

Flushing accounts for the majority of water usage in the West. Furthermore, since virtually nobody uses grey water, flushing uses clean, potable water that is brought in, filtered and treated at great cost. Dams are built, ecosystems destroyed, salmon go extinct, rivers are polluted so we can flush in the privacy and warmth of our own homes.

Modern toilets do not solve the instantaneous smell problem. So the bathroom needs ventilation and since few bathrooms are sealed off, the bathroom becomes a major source of heat loss or heat intrusion for the house. That little room not only wastes vast quantities of good water, it also wastes tons of air conditioning and heating. It has a huge carbon footprint.

Houses used to have one bathroom. They also used to have five or more residents. All that was not a major problem "back then." Now houses have on average 2.1 residents and few of those can imagine living with just one bathroom. "Oh dear, that must be hell." So here comes duplication.

The consumer society loves duplicates and triplicates. Now you need to buy three or more toilets, three or more fans, three or more sinks, mirrors, lights, etc. Everyone living in the house has their own bathroom, and it doesn't stop there. Any decent home has a few extra rooms just in case. And those rooms too have bathrooms. What about the guests dear, surely they can't use our bathroom?

A "normal" sized home now has two or three bathrooms. Some have five or six. More heat intrusion or heat loss. More pipes, more vents, more copper wire. More air freshener spray cans. More odor-repellant boxes, dried leaves, and other contraptions. More toilet brushes, light bulbs, mirrors, cabinets, toilet paper stands, garbage cans, soap dishes, soap, etc.

Where do all these consumables and waste products end up? A large part goes to sewage treatment plants. More energy usage to "treat" something that would make excellent fertilizer. But who in their right mind would go there? One can buy nice clean fertilizer from Home Depot. White pellets in paper bags to drop on the lawn.

adult(erated) living

There is an article in today's WSJ about "adult living communities." This crazy idea, thought up by a fellow called Del Webb, attracted many well-off baby boomers, who envisioned an "active" retirement life-style. Active but without noisy children or misbehaving teens. In short, an artificial consumer-oriented life-style that is foreign to the human condition.

These aging baby-boomers wanted to be safe and isolated in their gated communities. Ensconced in their fairway villas and green lawns. Far away from the nuisances of life, they would devote their golden years to playing dominoes and golf with like minded friends. Unfortunately the financial crisis caught up with them. Maybe they don't realize it is a good thing. Bring some new life in the game before their graveyard hideaway becomes just that.

Now they are forced to admit younger residents to help pay the bills. But with younger residents come children, teens, and young adults. Oh horror of horrors !

It is not just the aging adults in their protective cocoons who are complaining. Cities too are unhappy because now they will have to provide services like schools, etc. That cuts into their profits. In some cases, cities had granted tax breaks to the adult communities. Adding services that are unpaid for is not to their liking. However, it is not the profit and loss that strikes me as odd. Surely people will find a way to handle all that. 

It is the very (sick) notion that drives people away from one another into secluded hiding with like minded individuals. Sadly enough, for seniors such an idyllic hideaway slowly decays in synch with their aging bodies. Soon enough they won't leave their homes. With nothing to watch except other aging creatures stumbling around on artificially green links, life will seem desperate indeed. I am not sure it is that much better than looking at an abandoned construction site. 

Why these people want to depart the real world in order to cling to a virtual reality is beyond me. It is all part of consumerism I guess.

setback or progress?

It is now quite common to read stories about how the recession will roll back environmental rules and regulations. How the need to create jobs and keep the economy going will put environmental incentives on the back burner. How we will lose years of gains in a matter of months. How efficiency will suffer.

These stories are often found in publications such as the WSJ, Forbes, the Economist, and others that otherwise show little or no concern for environmental regulation. Not to be totally cynical and say that these publications often oppose pro-environment rules or promote rollbacks of such rules and regulations. How come these anti-environmental publications are suddenly so worried about green?

I think what these people are trying to tell us is that a thriving economy is good for the environment. That success lifts all boats. That we should work hard to keep the economy going so we can protect the environment. Remember, the more you buy the more you save. You can drink the kool-aid too.

I have previously remarked on how easy it is to attach a label of environmentalist to oneself. However, true environmentalism means less consumption. No new houses, no new cars, hybrid or otherwise, no thrashing perfectly good items to replace them with newer gadgets, no shopping at WalMart or anywhere else for that matter.

True environmentalism means going on a walk in nature on Black Friday. Turning off you TV instead of buying a flat screen. No driving to the mall and no bargain hunting. It has nothing to do with CFL's, hybrids, or efficiency. Efficiency does not matter to the environment. Absolute values are the only ones that matter.

Every item you buy to replace an older but functional item is a vote for environmental destruction.

Remember that none of the so-called environmental regulations has had much effect. Efficiency gains in gas and oil have been more than offset by increased travel, more driving, and larger homes. I could go on forever. The upshot is that these measures don't matter and their roll back or abolition does not matter either.

Reality is that economic slow downs are good for the environment because they reduce consumption. People spend less. They drive less. They stay home. They eat at home. Those are the only things that matter. Less consumption, less waste.