obese and depressed

The American public is seriously unhealthy. More than half are overweight and nearly 1 in 4 suffers from a mental illness, usually depression. How come people in the richest nation on earth are so unhealthy and unhappy?

There are ugly statistics wherever you look. Some show that all the gains society made in combatting infectious disease are now nullified by atherosclerosis, diabetes, hypertension, asthma and other conditions. Obesity plays a key role in all of these.

But maybe you think I am a pessimist and you point out that people live longer lives today than they did in at other times in history? You probably heard the average life-span of 40 years too many times. Clearly people are living longer now? But do they? If you take out infant mortality the difference is not that great.

Furthermore, the key determinants of infant mortality are clean water, sewer systems, and vaccines. By about 1950 most of these issues were solved. There are actually data showing that infant mortality is on the rise again in the US. Surely the numbers are low but the trends are disturbing.

But let's not get distracted. What is it that makes Americans so unhappy and unhealthy? How about being bombarded for hours on end with commercials that tell you how inadequate you are, how you would be so much better off if you owned this or that car, or ate this or that food, or drank this or that beer?

How about being told that in order to be cool you need a TV in every room, a blu ray disc player for every TV, cable and Tivo everywhere, the latest gadget cell phones, new PCs, a larger home, more furniture, a bigger yard, an outdoor kitchen, etc.? Hard to keep up with all of that. Work, work, work. Work and endless insecurity. You are always one paycheck away from being laid off or fired. Not to mention the ever mounting bills, the credit card debt, the home equity loan, the mortgage, the fear of losing your home, the inadequate health insurance, you name it.

Guess what America, it's time to throw out the TV. Time to stop listening to all those voices that keep telling you to buy more stuff, to eat more, to consume more, to drive more.

Throw out the TV, park the car and go for a walk.

fat and fatter

In the 1990's China had one of the lowest obesity rates in the world. Obesity in the rural population stood at less than 1% and in Beijing, it was 4% for men and 8% for women. Today, the BBC reports that obesity levels in China are surpassing 25%, with the poor and rural being more commonly affected. Some consider the rural pattern counter-intuitive, but is in line with that of other developing nations. Many had assumed that the richer urban populations that increasingly switched to Western diets would be more susceptible and more obese. Not so. 

It therefore seems rather obvious that the culprit is found in a new life style characterized by less activity and more "leisure time." As China's agriculture becomes industrialized and more people drive motorcycles, and cars instead of bicycles, obesity is on the rise. Another marker is also on the rise: the amount of time spent watching TV (munching cookies and drinking sodas no doubt).

The high fat, high sugar diets surely don't help matters but in China, diet changes are more extensive among the well off urban populations, who happen to be less obese. Be that as it may, nationwide obesity is an ongoing trend and predictions are that China's obesity rates could double within the next 20 years. That would bring China in line with the "civilized world."

One thing seems quite clear: what many would call progress and an increase in the standard of living, is really a double edged sword. It comes at a great cost to health and personal well-being.

Advanced societies as we'd like to call them have overweight and obesity rates higher than 50%. Nations on the path to such "luxury" are seeing their overweight rates grow to similarly high numbers. It appears therefore that, regardless of race, ethnicity, or culture, the price we pay for "progress" is that over half the population becomes distinctly unhealthy or chronically ill. As one Harvard researcher put it, obesity is defined in terms of adverse effects on health, not population norms. The latter goes without saying. Otherwise we would have adjusted our labels since the average and the median cases are now firmly in the overweight category.

And what about the food crisis you may ask? Although 25% of the world is malnourished, it appears that even more are over-nourished. Or maybe malnourished in the sense of excess calories.

good news and bad news

The bad news first: the oceans are rising more and faster than we thought. New studies clarify what was long a puzzle for climate modelers. Scientists found a subtle error in previous temperature readings done by submarines and ships. Now they estimate the seas warmed and rose about 50% faster than previous estimates. That is especially bad news if you just invested in a nice coastal property and managed to escape subprime woes and foreclosure. Your troubles are just starting: mother nature is coming to get you. Is there no fairness in the world?

More bad news for those of you with coastal properties, especially in Florida and California. Our president and one of the presidential candidates want to restart offshore drilling. And guess what, even "hard core" environmentalists -those that drive Volvo SUV's with tons of stickers no doubt- now feel that gas prices are SO high that "something needs to be done." How about driving less? Are you kidding? We have to drive, they say. The environment be damned, they think.

Better prepare for oncoming seas filled with tar balls and bunker fuel. Now there is something that will affect property values. So far coastal communities have fared better in the mortgage crisis than their inland peers. Maybe there is justice after all?

The good news, for as long as it lasts, is that DOT announced that Americans drove 1.4 billion fewer highway miles in April of 2008 versus April 2007. And who said there was no way to solve greenhouse gas pollution? Who said we needed to explore alternative energy and invest in clean technology to solve our energy "needs?" What we really need, my friends, is to stop driving. That will solve many of our biggest problems.

1. Obesity. The US Department of Health and Human Services estimates over 2/3 of Americans are overweight or obese. It has been called an epidemic that threatens life-expectancy for future generations. Guess what, have the kids walk to school, or have them ride their bikes. And while you are at it, you can bike too.

2. Dependency on foreign oil. This is big, especially in an election year, when concern with matters of national security and flag waving are high on everyone's to-do list. Since we only import about 50% of our oil and we certainly waste more than that, what is the problem really ? Our only dependency is our addiction to consume more.

3. Global resource depletion and pollution. The more oil we use, the more other goodies we consume as well. Oil is the lubricant of the consumer economy. It makes it so we can buy new things all the time and then throw them away within 6 months. The trucks not only bring in new goodies all the time, they also take away our waste to far away countries such as India and China. It is no surprise that over 60% of China's drinking water is contaminated.

4. Global warming. That is a no-brainer. Just wait until your beach and your beach house disappear into the deep blue sea.

It is clear that high gas prices are the solution to our woes. However, instead of rejoicing, we are all worried. Not so much about the high prices -they are way too low for us to worry a lot now- but about what could happen in the future and the possibility of dwindling supplies. Nothing to strike more fear into the hearts of addicts than the specter of future shortages. That is when all good intentions go out the door. Now we are ready for blood.

The drug pushers too are getting worried it seems. Saudi Arabia just announced it was going to boost production come July 1. The kingdom is worried that we might get serious about alternative energy. Or god forbid, that we would actually change our habits and continue to use less oil. Now that would be a real disaster for the pocketbooks of so many greedy people.

the weight of the neighborhood

In yet another example of how humans are influenced by their surroundings, researchers announced that obesity rates correlate with the type of neighborhood people live in. In a recent study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology, researchers looked at long term residents of several neighborhoods. What they found was that people who live in neighborhoods where walking is discouraged (i.e. your typical suburbia) tend to weigh more. Other studies have found the same trends, people in suburbia are heavier than city-dwellers, and so while suburbia may be "safer" from acute violence, it is worse for you in the long run.



The new study also found that environments that promote social interaction and score high on esthetics are better for women, but worse for men. Women living in such neighborhoods are slimmer, whereas men are fatter. Social activities likely draw women out of the house and engage them in physical activity. For men, on the other hand, it seems social interactions lead to drinking and barbecuing instead. The latter is my take on the study, but it seems plausible and I have some circumstantial evidence to back it up. I often run on a bike path through a suburban neighborhood and often meet groups of women, many with baby strollers, all engaged in a sort of outdoor group aerobics. While I would not go as far as call that serious exercise, it certainly beats sitting at home. Not surprisingly, all these women drive to the trailhead with their SUV's, where they "unpack" their baby strollers and get ready to work up a sweat.

I have also noticed that while men often exercise alone or with a friend, women are rarely seen alone and most often appear in groups. Of the cyclists riding Marin, or the East Bay hills, men tend to ride alone or with one friend, while women ride in small packs. Solitary women are a minority, whereas solitary men are the rule. Men do ride in packs, but only on weekends it seems.

At several of the local clubs, women spend mornings doing group aerobics and other group related pool activities. You rarely, if ever see men do this. Whenever the men at the club have a "social" they barbecue and drink beer. Otherwise, they exercise or swim alone. Although the gender issue is interesting, the main point here is not to highlight gender differences, but to stress the importance of context on all people.

All the available evidence points to the fact that we are much more influenced by our peers and surroundings than we would like to admit. It appears extremely difficult for people to deviate from these local norms for any extended period of time. Subtle and at times not so subtle social pressure is likely responsible. If you are a fitness buff and you move to a "nice" neighborhood, where everyone drives an SUV and mows their lawn military-haircut style, beware. Chances are you will be corrupted, and sooner than you think.

I have often advocated that only way to produce lasting change is to change your environment. You need to find another setting where doing the things that you like doing comes natural to you. Let the environment "force" you to walk, bicycle or run. Such gentle forcing will not be perceived as such and may become pleasurable instead. The neighborhood invites you to do physical activity.

In these settings you will be successful without unnecessary effort. Swimming upstream is not something humans are very good at. That is why diets don't work. To lose weight you need to change your life-style. For most people that means you will have to physically move to a new home, a new neighborhood, etc. A neighborhood where everyone is slim. If you can find one of those that is.

calories explained

Most people in the Western world know or think they know what calories are. Yet it appears that few connect calories and energy. Witness to that the success of foods and drinks that promise to deliver energy without calories. Another common example of disconnect are the ubiquitous zero-calorie energy drinks. In case you wonder, the calorie is a unit of energy. There is no such thing as energy without calories and the expression makes about as much sense as saying length without meters (or feet) or weight without kilograms (or pounds).

The word calorie contains the root "calor" or heat and calories were originally defined as the energy required to heat a certain quantity of water (a gram) by a certain amount (a degree centigrade). The definition does not limit the calorie to heating however, and calories are a universal unit for energy. You can calculate the energy content of food, gasoline, natural gas, heating oil, and even nuclear materials, and express it in calories. Since the calorie is a rather small unit, it is not used all that often for gasoline or heating oil. Even the food calorie is in reality a kilo-calorie (or 1,000 calories).

Nutritionists will tell you that the average adult needs about 2,500,000 calories, or 2,500 "food calories" to stay healthy. Most of us consume quite a bit more and these excess calories are stored away as fat. Today, over half the population in the civilized world has excess calories stored away. The mantra in the West is how to loose weight, not how to stay properly fed.

The calorie is an older unit, and the official SI unit of energy is the joule. You may have noticed that some food packages express energy as both calories (Kcal to be exact) and KJ or kilo-joules. When you bought a portable heater or installed an air-conditioner, you may have noticed its rating in BTU or British thermal units. A BTU is approximately 252.5 calories. When you look at your gas bill, you may see yet another unit, called a Therm. A therm is 100,000 BTU or 25.25 million calories.

A kilogram of fat contains 9,000,000 calories or almost 36,000 BTU. A cubic foot of natural gas has approximately 1030 BTU or 260,000 calories. That is equivalent to 260 food calories, and you would need 10 cubic feet of gas per day to stay healthy (provided you could utilize the energy in natural gas).

Why go through this physics lesson?

The reason is to get a better understanding of how we stay alive. We stay alive because farmers produce excess calories that they do not need to feed their families. These excess calories can be traded (sold) to keep non-farmers alive. The non-farmers in turn mine and produce the other goodies we all use. That includes many items that farmers can use to make their yields go higher. And farm yields have increased significantly over the last 100 years. In the 1930's one farmer could sustain 10 people. These days, one farmer sustains 80 or more individuals. In a primitive economy, farmers could only produce enough food for 3-4 individuals. We have come a long way you might say. Yet there is no such thing as a free lunch.

One key reason why farmers have become so successful is because they put in a lot more energy to produce food. Whereas farmers were once limited to manual labor, supported by domesticated animals, today's farmers rely heavily on oil-powered machinery. They also depend on artificial irrigation systems, and heavy doses of fertilizers and pesticides. All in all, they are not just using more energy to produce food, they are using more energy per unit of food produced. What that means is that they are putting in more calories than they get out. And not just by a small margin. Estimates are that we consume 9-10 calories to produce one calorie worth of food. We are definitely entering a region of diminished returns.

All that excess food has had some serious consequences. Not only did we all get fatter, we also reproduced more. A lot more. The population boom of the last century was largely a result of the earlier "green revolution" in farming. Suddenly we could sustain a lot more people, and guess what, a lot more people quickly appeared. Now it seems, we are entering an era of more limited resources. Unfortunately, all those extra people are still with us. And they will be with us for a while to come. Not only that, but those people have already started reproducing too.

And therein lies our key problem.

alternative energy: drink the kool-aid before it gets warm

It is amazing how powerful the belief in alternative energy really is. And how much people are banking on it. Perhaps it is not surprising, but it never seems to occur to people that cutting back on energy and resource use is the only sensible solution. We are using too much and we are wasting too much. This is not sustainable. It is not so much a matter of what energy source -or even what resource- we use, but how much of it we use and how much of it we waste. That is what really has to change. And it won't be easy.

There is no such thing as "clean energy." Some forms are cleaner than others and some have a ways to go in filling their specific pollution niche, but ultimately all forms of energy are polluting. By pollution we mean, all forms of energy create byproducts that end up harming us. Some forms, like fossil fuels produce gases that are now accumulating at high rates leading to serious consequences. But other forms, like solar or wind, will have other consequences that are equally damaging. It is just that these forms have a ways to go before they get there. But if we attack solar and wind like we did oil, it won't be long before we are faced with another crisis. There is no such thing as a free lunch.

For some obscure reason, people seem to believe that using more energy means progress. They equate the size of their mansions, the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, the size of their refrigerators, the number of cars, boats, and jet skis parked in their garage, with success. Ironically enough, it is fairly easy to show that these measures are largely meaningless. They do not correlate with happiness, and if anything they strongly correlate with deteriorating health. Obesity is but one sign of deterioration.

All that is happening here is people taking advantage of an abundant resource by using as much of it as quickly as possible, irrespective of whether such use provides any benefit. Sure, some people do benefit but they are a very small minority. The rest are suffering the consequences.

As a species we are opportunistic. That much is similar to other species. Unfortunately though, we found ourselves with sufficient technology to exploit an abundant resource, called fossil fuels. As any opportunistic species, we "exploded" in numbers and in appetite to quickly absorb whatever there was to absorb. The world population skyrocketed. Energy use per capita did too. We built entire infrastructures around this waste. We colonized uninhabitable areas such as deserts, and arctic regions. To say nothing of distant suburbs. All this infrastructures was built based on the premise of a never ending supply of cheap oil. It is all dependent on abundant cheap oil.

Now we are bracing ourselves for the coming collapse. Sadly, our longevity and the longevity of our infrastructure means that any retreat will be extremely painful. The longer we postpone, the more painful it will be. And the higher the price we will pay. Not surprisingly, few are willing to face up to it. They would prefer to keep going. They are driven to strongly resist any movement towards a sensible solution. They are quite likely, afraid of what might happen. But in doing so they are only making matters worse. Time to wake up America. Time to cut back.

obesity and global warming

Obesity rates are climbing. Since the 1970's the population has been getting fatter year over year. Some forty years later, despite many warnings and outcries, the situation is getting worse rather than better. Obesity is now attacking the rich as easily as the poor, and children as well as adults. In many communities more than half the people are overweight or obese, raising the question of what is normal weight. Others have gone as far as blaming obesity for global warming.

All this time, various experts have chimed in with everything from genetics to metabolism, to sedentary life-styles as the key culprit. Almost in lockstep with waves of proposed solutions, studies have appeared casting doubt on the efficacy of these remedies. We hear that in the long run, diets don't work, drugs don't work, and even exercise doesn't work. So why are we getting so fat? The public is left to believe that some mysterious force is at work, something that cannot possibly be controlled, and surely something that they cannot be blamed for. Yet obesity is a strong indictment of our way of life. Not that anyone seems to care.

Unlike smoking, obesity is not susceptible to public censure. While smokers can be made to feel uncomfortable, or even downright guilty, overweight people do not respond the same way. Few of them can be shamed into eating less. Furthermore, getting rid of excess weight is more difficult than quitting smoking. While most people manage to quit smoking, leaving only the truly addicted to struggle with patches and other solutions, the overweight do not respond as well to therapy. Very few lose weight and those that do tend to gain it all back rather quickly. They can count themselves lucky if they do not end up heavier after the diet than before. The overweight are part of a growing trend. By definition trends gather followers. That is the best way to silence the critics.

The reason all the remedies fail is quite telling. Being overweight or obese is a life-style problem. It is the result of a certain way of living, a round the clock, 7 days a week, 365 days a year attack. And that is not something you can fight with a few weeks of low calorie meals, or a pill, or 20 minutes of "exercise" a day. It is like trying to fix a leaking dam by sticking your finger in the crack.

Despite all the scientific "noise" about genes, neurotransmitters, hormones, and the like there is no doubt that obesity is a direct result of our unhealthy life-style. Obesity is largely the result of cheap oil. This is not some far fetched idea or another conspiracy theory. Cheap oil enables our life-style. It powers everything from the SUV's we drive, to the fertilizer, pesticides, and farm equipment that produces our abundant calories and high fructose corn syrup. Without cheap oil, a separated pedestrian-unfriendly suburbia with its endless cul-de-sacs, its shopping malls, and its drive-through everything, would not exist.

Obesity is closely related to overabundant cheap food and sugary drinks, relentless advertising of such foods and drinks, and a total lack of exercise. The less people exercise the fatter they get. Twenty minutes of walking on a treadmill in a cozy gym do not qualify as exercise in this context. They may to the gym owners, and the treadmill factories, and the numerous other beneficiaries of the "health and fitness" industry, but these actors are no different than the fast food operators, the soda producers, or the high fructose corn syrup peddlers. They all strive for limitless consumption. Most gyms and health clubs are nothing more than a new type of supermarket peddling energy drinks, sports drinks, and candy bars.

Don't look to the government for help. Their food pyramids are concocted by industry and tailored to ensure excess production in one area or another can find the right buyers. If we have excess grains, then grains must be healthy and consumption needs to be encouraged. There is always a scientist somewhere who can bless the benefits of five servings a day.

It is easy to blame the government bureaucrats, but they have little option but to bow to powerful commercial interests. Their elected masters owe large debts to these corporate heavyweights, who financed their campaigns. So it should be no surprise that their main interest lies in promoting the corn farmers, the poultry industry, the beef producers, the dairy industry, the orange growers, and the millions of other constituents who benefit from selling excess calories to the public. As an example, Washington Post reported that the health department could not promote universal breast-feeding for fear of upsetting the breast milk substitute producers.

The government goes further than just advertising for the food industry. It also subsidizes production and consumption. From free water, to farm subsidies, to school lunch programs and aid to the poor, there are so many sponsored programs that mentioning them all would take a few days.

Suffice it to say that obesity is here to stay, and that all remedies -short of changing our way of life- will fall short of the mark. Yes, obesity is linked to pollution and global warming. It is also linked to excess consumption and waste. But rather than being the cause of these ills, it is in a weird sense, a corrective step. Because obesity has major effects on morbidity and mortality. It makes life much more expensive, thereby ultimately curtailing consumption. It makes you sick and reduces your life-expectancy and fertility.

I am sure this is not the type of corrective action many will welcome. But the choice is clear, folks. Either we grow up and do something about our way of life, or that way of life will do something about us.

drugged nation

In a further indication of the sorry state of American health, it was reported yesterday that over half of insured Americans are on drugs. And we are not referring to the occasional pain killer. These are chronic drugs that are taken for extended periods of time, some for life. Many believe the percentage of drug users will only go up in the coming years.

While some in the medical community were quick to point out how good our drugs for chronic conditions have become, others were not so upbeat. Among the dissenters some pointed out the relentless and extremely effective direct-to-consumer advertising used by pharmaceutical companies. There is little doubt that many are taking medications they don't need. No matter how good these are, none are free of side-effects and not all side-effects are harmless. Given the numbers of drug users there is no doubt that many a premature death is caused by medication.

Apart from all that the real issue here is the declining public health. If over half of the population needs medication to live something is seriously wrong. Perhaps not surprisingly a lot of drug-taking was linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart ailments. All these conditions are negatively impacted by a sedentary life-style, lack of exercise, and over-consumption of food. These are suburban illnesses, brought about and reinforced by an unnatural life-style that some believe is the pinnacle of achievement and success.

It reminds me of the commercials for a smoke-free country. They start out by highlighting all the glamour put forth by tobacco companies. You can be successful, a movie star, the Marlboro man, an adventurer, a socialite. Then the images fade and a very sick person attached to an oxygen tank appears. The message ends by saying this is the true face of smoking. Similarly, we could envision a commercial showing a big suburban mcmansion, two huge SUV's, an oversized lawn, tons of power tools, and other accoutrements of the good life. Now fade to sickly obese inhabitants, huffing and puffing to lift themselves out of the couch reaching for their life-saving drugs.

There were startling findings in the study, such as the fact that two thirds of women over 20 were on medication. These are women in their prime reproductive years. Think of the potential harm that can be done to the unborn once these women get pregnant. Then again, over one quarter of children and teens are on chronic medications as well and three quarters of the elderly. It appears that Americans are drugged from the womb to the grave.

The pharma industry is unrelenting in its search for illnesses that fit their drugs. It is called "label expansion" and it is something that makes many investors drool. The drug industry is not alone however. The medical profession also does its part by bringing more and more conditions within the medical realm. Children are no longer difficult, they suffer from ADHD. People are no longer sleeping less as they get older, they suffer from insomnia. And then there are the ever dropping numbers of acceptable cholesterol levels and blood pressure readings. Without any consideration as to the cause, the zealots are out to drive these numbers into the ground. Already signs are appearing that lowering blood pressure isn't always a smart thing to do. It often leads to premature death. How come you never hear about this in the mainstream media? Here is a hint: there are plenty of medications to lower blood pressure, and these have to be taken for the rest of one's life. The same holds for cholesterol.

Come on America, time to take another pill. Forget about your bicycle. It is too hard in any case.

naive

To any big oil industry trader or executive, the current calls for alternative energy seem overly naive. To propose that we tackle our current energy needs with solar or wind power must sound as credulous as young children offering their parents advice on how to solve key problems.

For once though the real naiveness is not in thinking that we can do without oil. Because surely for as long as we persist in our current way of living we cannot and we never will. The naiveness is in thinking that we can keep going the way we are going. That we can keep building houses in the desert and then use energy to keep them from becoming ovens. That we can all drive oversized SUVs wherever and whenever we please. That we can fly around the planet. That we can all lie in front of our flat screen TVs munching chips. That we can all have a lawn. That we can all drink bottled water that has been shipped half way around the globe. That we all need fresh fruit and vegetables in the middle of winter. That the party will never end.

However, not all is lost. Because, however good you think this party feels, it really is not. People are far from happy. There is more depression, more mental illness, and more chronic disease now than at any time in human history. More people are overweight and suffer from diabetes and high blood pressure than at any time in history. These modern ills are so prevalent and so serious that some have argued that all the gains we made against infectious diseases are nullified by the losses we suffer to diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure and the like. I.e. it is not obvious that we are better off than our ancestors several centuries ago. It may appear that way, but then again we may be overly naive.

Our party is not satisfying in any real sense. It is driven by constant activity, constant buying, and other obsessive-compulsive behaviors that make people forget their unhappiness and that some would say, are symptoms of a deep underlying unhappiness. Humans are not well suited to a sedentary life-style. They are not adapted to eating sugar and sweets all day long. Even though we are curious and like to see new things, we do not travel as well as we would like. We suffer from jet lag, travelers diarrhea and other ills. Traveling spreads infectious diseases and will play a major role in the coming and all but inevitable pandemic.

So, you wonder, why do we do all this stuff if it does not really satisfy us? One key reason is the constant barrage of advertising targeting our most basic needs and instincts. We are constantly told that we are inadequate unless we drink coke, budweiser, or unless we buy dove soap, or apply degree deodorant. We need to brush, floss, and gargle listerine. We are told we need to travel and visit faraway places. We are urged to buy larger and heavier cars. We are frightened into swallowing vitamins and supplements, and drink calcium fortified orange juice. We are bombarded with thousands of ads by the time we turn ten.

This flood of advertising is so overwhelming and so difficult to get away from that it is constantly driving our day. Americans watch more commercials than any other people in the world, and they spend more time shopping than any other people. All that shopping amounts to very little as research has shown that we discard or thrash over 90% of what we buy within six months. Nothing has any lasting value in this system of constant and senseless turnover. We have become huge churning machines, taking in goods and energy, and spitting out waste and pollution.

It is indeed very naive to think that we can keep going like this forever. That it is our patriotic duty to consume. The fact that nobody objects to such a depiction of patriotism shows how deeply affected we are by advertising and how warped our sense of the world has become. How can destruction of our land and wasting our resources be called patriotic? It is time to wake up America. Wake up before it is too late.

fluff ball economy

The US economy is in a recession. Although it has not officially been announced yet, everyone knows it. It does not look good. This recession could be a tad worse than others in recent memory. Meanwhile the US banking system is in trouble. Even the almighty dollar is not doing so well. No wonder the Federal Government had to step in and bail out Bear Stearns. It seems quite likely that before this is over, others will need to be bailed out too.

Above all, the government needs to restore confidence. Otherwise there will be widespread trouble. We have deficits galore, trade deficits, budget deficits, you name it. And more and more of that debt is held by foreigners. The budget deficit alone amounts to about $30,000 per person -that includes babies and elderly people too-. $8,000 of that is owned to foreigners. We don't want to scare these foreigners away. That would cause trouble. Major trouble.

What do you do with an economy that is based on discretionary spending? I.e. spending on things nobody needs. An economy that is made up of doctors, lawyers, nurses, nannies, gardeners, psychologists, massage therapists, family coaches, concierges, spa personnel, and other fluff? All these people do is shift wealth around.

We have an economy whose value is in churning through materials at ever faster rates. Whose collateral is huge homes in swamps and deserts. Homes that can only be sustained by the flow of copious cheap oil -and guess what? It is no longer so cheap anymore.

Fortunately we have Madison avenue to package it all and make it appear as if there is something there. And we have a great military to beat up anyone who disagrees with that view.

The American economy works as follows. Pump in vast quantities of oil, natural gas, and coal. Unfortunately, more and more of that needs to be imported from other places so that is where our military comes in: to guarantee that we keep getting it at a good rate.

Bring in tons of cheap, preferably below minimum wage labor. Labor that is free of rights. Such labor can be found in abundance in Central and Latin America, although Asian sweatshops are acceptable too. Here is another job for our brave soldiers: keep all these volatile "labor units" under control. These labor units are responsible for all the real value produced in our economy. They work the farms, mine the resources, and are essential in creating the wealth.That is why Washington has problems with the current illegal immigration debate. How do you tell working class Americans that the only reason we can live the way we do is because of the vast labor pools south of the border?

Now unleash a formidable media and advertising campaign to get the engine rolling and keep it revved up at all times. That is where Madison comes in. Hollywood plays a key role in all this too and it is the main reason why we pay these actors and actresses so much money. They fuel consumption. They drive consumption's big wheel, called fashion. Fashion makes it so that you discard good stuff that is practically new and buy other stuff. The geniuses on Madison Avenue make sure you stick to the program. Because the economy is in churn.

Another key ingredient is people. Bored people. Bored because there is nothing real for them to do. So we stoke their desire to outdo the neighbors, their unlimited greed, their hugely inflated and fundamentally insecure egos, and their inherent laziness. That makes it all work. Add to that the mind's addiction to moving images and the body's virtual unlimited capacity to store fat, and there is your recipe for success.

So what do those American's do to sustain their spending habits? They work in the services business. In the fluff ball economy. The economy of make believe. They scratch each other's backs. They help you move money around. They sell and resell housing and all the stuff in it. They advise you on finances, retirement, consumption, and other "important" matters. They do planning. They build and endlessly upgrade houses. They sell trinkets. They defend people who divorce and fight with their neighbors, they cure imaginary illnesses, and they help people reduce stress and cope with life. They teach fluff.

Despite its intricate structure and tremendous track record, this fluff ball economy is unsustainable. It won't last. Like one giant bubble it will explode. Better move out of the way when that happens.

dementia and greenhouse gases

There is little doubt that the population is gaining weight. Being overweight is now so common -in many areas more than half the population is overweight- that normal weight people are starting to look abnormally skinny. It is not hard to find a public establishment such as a bar, coffee shop or restaurant, where everyone is overweight or obese. Apart from college towns, where a large contingent of the clientele consists of students, finding an eatery where most people are of normal weight is almost impossible to do.

Obesity is making inroads into the child-population as well. Most elementary and middle schools are now populated with fat kids and fat teens. Fat children who are driven around by fat parents so they can get home in time to play video games and watch TV. Burning more oil and more coal to keep up that waist line.

Being overweight is linked to all kinds of nasty diseases, but that does not seem to worry the fat. Now however, another health risk was added that may have some think twice -if they still can that is-, dementia. The risk of dementia goes up as people gain weight. And it seems especially well correlated with abdominal fat, or potbellies. The type of fat you get when you don't exercise enough. Given that tens of millions of Americans are predicted to become demented over the next decade, putting an undue burden on their families and the health care system, this should be a wake-up call. It is time to get out of the car.

It is not just our planet that is choking on greenhouse gases. Our bellies are choking on visceral fat. And our brains are going out the window. Idiocracy here we come.

Fortunately, the remedy for potbellies, diabetes, hypertension, a lot of cancers, dementia, and global warming are all the same. Ditch the car, turn off the TV and the video console, bypass the shopping mall, and work up a good sweat.

Don't even think of going to the gym. Gyms are consumer-oriented, energy wasting super-markets, where weight loss and conditioning are as elusive as sweat on the floor. Gyms further consumption. Not to mention that most drive to get there.

If you have been on a quest for elusive happiness through over-consumption and near-zero energy expenditure, guess what? The only way you will ever reach your goal this way is when your brain goes to mush. It now appears that your chances of getting there are actually "better" than once thought, so don't despair.

However, rather than lying around wasting precious resources, maybe you should get up and ride your bicycle. Or go for a run. Don't just save the planet, save yourself.

Today's NY Times article confirms that the runner's high is for real. I can certainly attest to that. It is hard to surpass these moments of intense pleasure and satisfaction. Plus it is good for you.

stanford disconnect

There was an interesting remark in yesterday's green economy version of the Wall Street Journal. According to a Stanford professor, who monitors these things, Stanford freshmen are now more aware of the environment than ever before. At the same time, electricity use in freshman dorms keeps going up year over year. The Journal asks the rhetorical question: are freshmen like Hollywood ?

One of the themes the Journal has highlighted over the past couple of years is that Americans like to talk green but don't like acting green. This theme has been presented from a number of angles and always boils down to the fact that Americans are not willing to make sacrifices or change their life-style. At the same time, any article about the environment illustrates how you can buy green solutions. How you can consume your way into being green.

It therefore occurred to me that something else may be at stake. Americans may not know how to act green. Because Americans have been very well conditioned to spend money. Spending money used to be a sign of well-being, but since 9/11 it has been elevated to patriotic duty. You shall spend to keep our economy going. To keep America strong.

Like everything else, being green has been equated with spending more. But to add insult to injury it has also been equated with getting less. You need to buy expensive CFL light bulbs and you get less or at least inferior light. Even if the article praises CFL's it will point out that they are "almost as good as" conventional bulbs. You need to buy expensive gas-saving cars but you get less or no performance. You need to install energy-efficient appliances but you won't get your money back for decades. Plus the appliances will have all kinds of annoying characteristics. Never once is going green presented as a win-win.

Of course, the whole discourse misses the point. Going green means NOT spending. It means using what you have for as long as you can use it. And then find a secondary use for it. You don't need to buy a green car. You need to drive less. You don't need CFL's. You need to turn off your lights.

No doubt the freshmen have a funny way of thinking about the environment. It may go something like this: I always put my garbage in the trash and I always recycle my soda cans. I will use CFL bulbs, and my screen saver. Later I will build a big house with solar panels and drive a hybrid SUV and a sports car. This sort of consumer-oriented, suburbia-friendly, environmentalism is anything but. It probably never occurs to the freshmen that they should use less power. That they should turn off their lights. That they should not buy the latest cell phone gadget. That they should drive less and use their bicycles.

In short, they should rein in their consumption. Opt for smaller houses, buy only one car and rip out the suburban lawns that are the number one environmental disaster in America today. Save water when they take showers and brush their teeth and use old furniture for their dorm room. Throw out the TV.

Unfortunately, today's freshmen were raised the wrong way. They were born and raised in luxury. They were driven to school and to their many after-school activities. They were driven to play-dates with their friends, where they played video-games instead of board games. They had a computer when they were four. They had their own room and bathroom; their own stereo and TV, their iPod. All the lights stayed on round the clock. All the TV's were on day and night. All the appliances were on or in standby mode, ready to jump into action. The fridge was stocked with food and cold soda. Everything was set for a big party, any day of the year.

Servants ran the laundry through the dryer on sunny days. Everything anyone touched once was washed immediately. Nobody ever thought of conserving water. The low-flow shower heads were quickly swapped out. Everyone took luxurious 30 minute hot showers and soaked in the tub at least once a week. The kids had a cellphone when they were 10, and they received a new model every year. At 16 they had their own wheels.

In short, these kids are professional consumers. They view the world as one giant super-mall. Being green is just another, more efficient way to consume. Efficiency is key. Technology is manna from heaven and it will solve all our problems. Our concept of history is one of a straight line upward. Getting better and better. Upward toward more consumption. Things never go bad. Sure, there are some "corrections" ever once in a while, but on the whole things just get better all the time. The party lasts forever.

Stanford's best and brightest are ill prepared for the world. They are the results of yesterday's parenting. And yesterday's parenting is no longer adapted to tomorrow's world. It is bloated and out of synch. Obese and out of shape.

consume or die

We spent our weekend at Folsom Lake. Folsom for those of you unfamiliar with California geography is near Sacramento, the state capital. To some it is an infamous place as it is the site of Folsom prison. To others it is a mecca in the middle of the Central Valley. Up until a few months ago, it was the site of booming real estate development. To many it looks indistinguishable from similar developments in Orange County. Irvinitis I call it. Now it is quickly becoming foreclosure city. Not Folsom per se, but all the communities around the lake.

Folsom Lake is very pretty, especially in Spring, before the heat sets in. Yesterday was a beautiful day to boot. A day you'd expect the lake to be very busy. However that turned out to be wrong. So, where were all those people ? No doubt a fair number had made the trek to Tahoe to take advantage of the snow. Yet, not everyone had left the area. Indeed, the parking lots at the countless malls were all filled to capacity.

From the looks of it, it appeared everyone was doing their patriotic duty. Consume or die. In an area hard hit by the lending disaster, consumerism was alive and well. Instead of taking advantage of the many recreation opportunities offered by the lake and the American River, overweight consumers were driving their SUV's to the mall. To be honest, I cannot be sure they were actually spending a lot of money. It has been said that most visitors these days look but don't buy. But what I can tell is that many were strolling or driving around eating donuts and ice cream, despite their already oversized girth.

The influence of continuous advertising is clearly visible. What compels people to spend their time in shopping centers on a sunny weekend day is beyond me. Why they would want to sit inside dark movie theaters when they could be biking, running, or walking is equally puzzling. And why they need to always be eating or drinking high fructose corn syrup (aka soda) is another mystery. Not surprisingly, Folsom Lake is an area where few if any normal-weight people live. Being overweight and obese is so prevalent here, that the normal look skinny in comparison.

Driving through these endless housing developments, with their cookie-cutter McMansions, wide four lane roads, and ubiquitous strip malls makes me wonder how long this madness will last. Here we are in the middle of a near-desert, where temperatures are oven-like for three seasons, and freezing in winter, and we see nothing but 4,000+ sq foot homes with technicolor green lawns. The amount of energy and water needed to sustain all this is staggering. Unfortunately, most of it seems to go to waste for no good reason. I wonder what it will look like a 100 years from now.

sensible steps

There are many sensible steps you can take to save energy and reduce your carbon footprint. Perhaps the easiest for people living in the sunbelt is to retire your clothes dryer. It is a strategy that can work anywhere in the country with some careful planning.

Dryers use up a significant amount of electricity and there aren't very many ways around it, i.e. there aren't energy saving dryers. On the other hand it is easy to dry your clothes in the sun (and wind) and they will look better and smell fresher too. And you won't need any anti-static wipes either. All you have to remember is to shake them out before you hang them. You also have to be careful where you put the clothespins so as not to pinch certain visible parts. It is all common sense but these days people are so unaware of basics that it is good to mention it.

A clothesline and clothespins are a minor cost and the savings are immediate. Apart from an outdoor location, it is good to also have an indoor backup location. Best are rooms or large closets that house the furnace and the water heater. These locations are always dry and warm. Most homes are large enough for a drying room.

The other thing you have to consider is your drying capacity. Chances are it will be less than you had with the dryer. So you need to make sure not to do all your laundry all at once. You may also want to reschedule if rain intervenes. If not, you will run out of space and end up with wet and wrinkled clothing. It is easy to avoid and the change to your routine is minor really so it shouldn't cause any undue hardship. A bonus is the fact that, if you run out of time, you can leave clothes hanging when dry.

Your second best bet is to replace your old refrigerator/freezer with a more up to date model. Consult energystar.org to see which models will save you the most. A slightly smaller box will save even more. It is good to remember that you are probably putting too much stuff in your refrigerator anyways. A great many items do not need refrigeration because you will consume them soon enough. Never mind the warnings on the packages. These are just there to avoid legal liability. Most things will last one week at normal room temperature. That is true for almost all prepared items like jams, preserves, etc. All these items are the way they are because of the need for preservation without cooling.

And here is another idea. One that will go a long way towards fighting obesity as well. Keep sodas and drinks out of the fridge. Not having cold soda will stop you from overconsumption. It would be even better if you stopped buying sodas altogether. Soda is nothing but packaged sweetened water and the amount of energy that goes into producing, storing, cooling, and shipping these is just plain outrageous. And about the only thing these drinks will do for you is add fat to your body. They are not good at quenching thirst and they do not provide any valuable nutrition. They are just drugs for your sugar fix.

And when you buy that new fridge, remember to keep it closed. The less you open it and the less long you open it for the better your savings will be. Think about what you want before you open the fridge and then fetch it quickly. That too will help with your weight. Don't look at your fridge like a candy store full of goodies. It shouldn't be.