california: the long term forecast

Ever wondered what will happen to the Golden State in the next decade or two? Well, the trends are there for everyone to see. It does not look so good to say the least. Of course, any dismal outlook needs to be tempered by the notion that California is very important strategically for the US. 

So important that the young country went to great lengths to tame the badlands and near-deserts around what was once the dusty Pueblo de Santa Maria de Los Angeles. The impoverished pueblo became a metropolis known as Los Angeles. 

In the process the fertile Owens valley was laid to waste. So too was northern Baja California, but that is not our problem you say? It doesn't stop there though. Hundreds of dams were erected, the "other" Yosemite valley flooded, and the Sacramento river delta depleted of one of the finest salmon fisheries anywhere; its ecosystem forever changed. Such was the cost extracted to colonize the Southland and turn it into concrete and golf courses.

It is clear that the country will go to great lengths to preserve access to the Pacific and to keep California thriving. If something were to happen to California, a breakup of the US would become a reality.

I suspect the US will eventually break up, but it may be a long time in coming. The trends that affect California also affect the country as a whole and the forces driving towards a breakup are very strong. I am not speaking of political activism, acts of savvy business people, deeds of brave heroes, or overall sentiment. In my opinion these are only responses to, and outward appearances of a set of much  stronger underlying currents.

The first problem California will have to deal with is desertification. It appears that by 2030 the desert will reach well into what is known today as Northern California (but is in reality in the middle along the N-S axis). What that means is that droughts will be frequent and severe. Since Northern California not only supplies water to itself, but also contributes significantly to the Southland, that does not bode well for agriculture or human habitation.

Unless another mega-diversion project gets started, or unless we are willing to pump tons of energy into desalination, California agriculture appears on the skids. California's agriculture is entirely dependent on irrigation. The irrigated area is relatively small (smaller than Ohio's agriculture for example), but the value of crops grown here is very high. Agriculture is big business in the Golden State.

However, mega-projects are expensive and will only postpone the inevitable. California's long term outlook is poor. Over time, California will probably follow the example of Iraq. Once known as the Fertile Crescent, the cradle of civilization, the region between Tigris and Euphrates is now a salt-encrusted desert where barely anything grows.

The second trend is an aging population. This trend affects the whole country and is especially pronounced in the dominant ethnic group, Caucasians. California is seeing a shift as whites are already a minority in the state. This trend will only accelerate further. Influx into the state is dominated by non-whites. The non-Caucasians living here, also have much higher birth rates.

Newer populations will shape the state. They are more conservative, less well off, and more heterogeneous. The demographic trends will continue to erode the housing situation over the medium term. The State is now wildly overbuilt and its housing problems could well lead to an accelerated decline that further impoverishes the State. California may become a series of protected beach enclaves where rich people hide from the poor masses all around.

The third trend is an exhaustion of cheap resources. The climate for innovation is disappearing. Not because of any policies or politics, or the lack of smart people. Quite simply because the State is running out of cheap land, cheap water, cheap labor, and a large consumerist throw-away market. The key to Silicon Valley success was the ample availability of all four. The fourth is disappearing as quickly as the first three now that half of the American households are done spending on gadgets. Silicon Valley for all its fame and creativity depended heavily on consumers willing to throw out its goodies after a few years, so as to replace them with newer and "better" versions.

California, it appears, is riding into the sunset.

water use so far

Here are my water use figures for the year. This is for a 3,200 sq ft home near the California Coast, with four inhabitants and a small vegetable garden. Initially, while it was still raining, we used rain barrels to collect water for both indoor and outdoor use. That included all uses except drinking water which we get through the "normal channels." 

It rained reasonably regularly during the first two billing periods, but during the last one, we did not have a single drop of rain, and none is expected until at least mid-October. To deal with no new water, we are actively recycling grey water and use grey water for everything, except drinking, showers, and cooking.

During the first billing period (about 2 months), our average daily use was 39 gallons a day. During the second period, it was 36 gallons a day, and during this last period it was 50 gallons a day. The increase reflects the absence of rain.

I would say that this was done without resorting to extreme measures and without any real restrictions. Nothing that affected our quality of life or imposes hard labor. Some people may find recycling water objectionable but it is actually quite easy to do, and takes little or no extra work.

For those of you who are minding your expenses, I have to say that saving water, unfortunately, does not result in much dollar savings. It is not worth it and we are not doing it to save money. Unlike gas and electricity, our "water" bill has so many other items (sewage, altitude charges, seismic improvements, etc.) that have remained fixed that the savings is negligible. That is very sad indeed. 

Here we are in the middle of the second year of a drought and there is really no incentive for people to save water. We hear on a daily basis how officials are discouraged by the weak popular response to a call for conservation, but nobody should be surprised. Instead our good citizens are enraged that they have to save some 10% over previous years, while other water districts have not imposed any such measures or higher rates. Grow up, people !

It is absolutely shameful and embarrassing the way California wastes water. Not to mention the many impediments they put in the way of people trying to save water. Many health officials are using the West Nile virus "threat" and other excuses to discourage people from using rain barrels or installing collection systems. There are no incentives and no houses are being built with rain water collection, even though this would add a minimal cost to a house that will be priced way over $1MM.

I wish the governator would take notice. There are plans in the works for desalination plants in Southern California, and other "grand engineering" schemes that will waste tons of energy so people can flush perfectly good water down their toilets. We have already destroyed one of the most productive salmon fisheries on the Pacific Coast, but there is no end in sight to the destruction people want to inflict just to have a green lawn in the desert and outdo their neighbors.