Wednesday, March 26, 2008

africa-why climate matters

Looking back several hundred years it seems obvious that North America was bound to become the world's superpower. Never before had Europeans, with their relatively advanced technology, found such a vast and empty continent full of natural resources. Sure there were people living in North America, but a combination of diseases and technology (germs and steel) took care of that. The North American Indians were living in an isolated stone age. Neither their weapons nor their immune systems were up to the challenge. No only were they no match for the Europeans, their level of development had left most resources untouched. American Indians had never managed to mine the vast natural resources covering the land and lying beneath the surface.

No wonder that the Europeans had a ball. Everything they needed and then some was here in quantity. And even though the continent appeared desert-like, vast underground aquifers and numerous dams would take of that. And then there was oil. America had large supplies of oil, soon to become the new currency.

Three hundred years later, signs of strain are beginning to appear. Not to worry, the country accumulated so much wealth in that time, that it will take a lot longer before real cracks will show. Many of America's forests are depleted. So are its fisheries. Its coal reserves are still vast, but it has moved past its peak oil. The aquifers that once flowed in abundance are drying out, and many of the dams in the West are silting up. In other places salt water is intruding, or reservoirs -such as Lake Mead- are drained faster than they can refill. Clearly, the party is not going to last forever. And the wilder it gets, the sooner it will end.

But the story of America begs the question why Africa avoided a similar -albeit probably earlier- fate? Why did Europeans never colonize Africa the way they did in North America ? Africa was closer and easier to reach. Most of its population was in a similar early stage of technology development. And like North America, Africa is and was very rich in natural resources, perhaps even more so. Although Africa was colonized, the Europeans never settled here, nor did they drive out the indigenous population to the same extent as was done to the American Indians.

One could argue that the Europeans did colonize Africa and that they did -and continue- to extract its riches. But the question is why did they not settle Africa and why did Africa not become an earlier version of the US ? Surely it wasn't some form of human decency that kept them back.

One answer is clearly climate. Africa is very inhospitable. And the same is true for most tropical regions. Humans do not do well in tropical regions. Although resources are abundant, competition is fierce. Apart from some isolated tropical islands, where competition and disease can be kept at bay, humans have trouble in the tropics. And that is true even today, with our much more advanced technology.

In Africa, roles were reversed. It wasn't the natives dying in high numbers because of diseases brought in from EurAsia. It was the Europeans dying of tropical diseases. That made it hard for them to gain a foothold. And European technology at the time was no match for the myriad of pests, both plant and animal, that interfere with agriculture in Africa. In essence the same happened in Latin America. The continent was discovered at nearly the same time as North America. You could argue it was slightly farther away, but given that most ships traveled on the equator to take advantage of trade winds, the difference was insignificant. It was the geography and especially the climate that was not as friendly here as up North.

That is not to say that the North American climate is easy. It isn't. To most Europeans it is quite harsh, with very cold winters and hot summers. There are tons of natural disasters, whose frequency and scope were way beyond what was common on the old Continent. But humans are better at dealing with cold than they are at dealing with heat. They do better in climates that show seasons and have a distinct winter. Such periodic changes go a long way in getting rid of nasty pests that would otherwise make our lives very hard. And that too remains true to this day.

I am sure that with abundant cheap oil, we could make it work. We could establish a colony in tropical and near tropical regions. But at great costs. It would not be very competitive with the rest of the planet.

However, the point of this story is not about Africa or North America. The point I want to make is that climate matters, and that hot climates are more problematic than cooler ones. And that should warn you about the dangers of global warming. If we turn the planet into a tropical region, we will find ourselves in ever increasing jeopardy. And we won't have the technology, or better the cheap oil, gas, and coal to keep us afloat in adversity.

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