troubled waters

Seventy percent of our planet is covered in water. For all practical purposes, the oceans are our infinite reservoir. A reservoir that stays steady no matter how much we take out or put in. By all measures we as individuals are puny and insignificant in comparison. If you really believe humans are too inconsequential to do major global damage to ecosystems look no further than the oceans. Because if there is anything on this planet that should not show signs of human meddling it is those oceans.

Reality, unfortunately is quite different. Our effect on the oceans and the creatures living there is more than apparent. And if you don't think that is troubling you are in denial.

Take the world's fisheries. Almost half of all fish and shellfish stocks known to us are fully exploited and close to or at maximal sustainable limits. That means that if we fish more these stocks will collapse. 25% of fish stocks are already past that point. More than half of those are overexploited and in decline while approximately 10% are depleted. Of those 10% a few are undergoing a long recovery that is estimated to take decades and the success of which depends on legal protections and enforcement. 

So far recovery efforts have had mixed results. Some species have recovered faster than we expected, while others like haddock, cod and redfish remain critical despite long campaigns and elaborate efforts.

Only 25% of fish and shellfish stocks remain underexploited and present any opportunity for growth. Many of these are small coastal fish and shellfish considered of inferior quality. Fishery production from wild catches has leveled off at around 100 million tonnes per year. That is up from 45 million in 1970.  

The total values you find vary a bit depending on whether one includes non-food items such a fishmeal or not. You may see total numbers ranging from 98 million to as high as 110 million tonnes. Another source of variability is Chinese data. China is the largest fish producer and recently Chinese numbers have been called into question. Especially since Chinese trends seem to go counter those of all other countries. Most suspect China is inflating its numbers. But even a bit of fudging cannot hide the fact that we are close to the limit.

According to the FAO, the year 2000 was the highest capture year at 94.8 million tons of food-quality fish. Since then, numbers have leveled off or even decreased. 95 million tonnes by the way is the number needed to keep our current fish consumption level at the 2007 population values. Fish is an important source of protein and much of the world depends on fish for adequate nutrition. Overall, seafood contributes 15% of all protein. Decreasing our fish consumption will lead to inevitable starvation and malnutrition.

Projected population growth alone is expected to totally deplete wild catches by sometime between 2030 and 2050 at present levels of consumption. That is how close we are to our limits.

One should not infer from this that the oceans will be empty by 2050 as some do. This type of sensationalist press is common and makes conservation efforts look bad. Because it is very likely that there will be fish in the oceans in 2050. It is only if conditions do not change that this would happen. Conditions always change.

The point of this projection is not to spread doom and gloom. It is only to illustrate how enormous our impact on the planet has become. And that means global disasters are ever more likely. Especially if we keep going the way we are going now. We are so close that if we just stay where we are, population growth alone could do us in before the end of the century.