election time

The economy has overtaken the war in Iraq in the minds of voters. Many no doubt feel the situation in Iraq has stabilized. Even though record numbers of troops died last year, there is a sense that things are improving. And there are a few reasons for this, not all of them a reflection of reality. First, the number of Iraq reports and the prominence of those reports has declined. That is because news organizations have new topics to focus on. The presidential campaign is one of these and campaigns always make for good stories. Especially, when come-from-behind candidates win races.

I am not sure if anyone has studied it, but it seems pretty clear that our perception of the situation in Iraq is directly related to the number of stories and the attention given to those stories in the press and on TV. When there are fewer reports and when new stories take a backseat to other news, our perception is that things must be better. We quickly forget about civil wars in other countries. Another key factor is saturation. We were pretty saturated with carnage from Iraq and it is unclear how much more we could take without yawning or switching channels. That is one reason the news organizations are so eager to switch.

There is plenty of other news of course, but not much that really interests us. Genocide in Darfur, bloodshed in Kenya, rigged elections in Georgia, and other stories fail to grab our attention. No Americans are involved and in any case, trouble elsewhere is to be expected. It just proves to us that we live in paradise.

The second war issue has a better connection to reality. Violence has indeed declined in Bagdad, where most news organizations are located. That is because there is a better troop and security presence there. Insurgents have been forced to relocate and their relocation has not been followed by the media yet. Dangerous travel conditions are one reason why. Journalists do not want to venture much outside the safe areas. And who can blame them? This war has been the deadliest in terms of press casualties. All in all, it is rather unclear what is really happening in Iraq, but my hunch is it is not very good.

There is additional trouble in Afghanistan and Pakistan but that is of lesser concern. Most feel we won in Afghanistan and that book is closed. As for Pakistan, well they do have their own troubles there, but then again so does everyone else.

When it comes to the economy, the focus is on energy. It is winter and a time when people use the most energy and are faced with the highest bills. For many it is unwelcome news. They have overextended themselves during the years of cheap credit and now they have trouble making ends meet. Energy is the item people pay for on a regular basis -every time they gas up for example- and so it quickly becomes a sore point. Ironically enough this shift is not a shift at all. The war in Iraq was about cheap oil and this new crisis is no different. All our crises are about access to cheap resources.

All of that is bad news for the environment. Rising energy prices have some effect on consumption but reducing consumption is not a virtue over here. It is not something people consider a viable option. Americans do not feel good when they have to cut back on their "essential" gas guzzling. Much like drug addicts they start showing signs of withdrawal. And like drug addicts they will go to extreme measures to make sure they get their fix.

And when that happens, companies are only to happy to oblige. Because addicts are the best customers. They are very loyal and dependable. And they are a path of minimal resistance and optimal profits. Because they aren't picky. As long as they can get enough of what they need, they go home happy.