looking for an accusation that will stick

One of the unfortunate side-effects of the Iraq debacle is the growing power of Iran. While this was an entirely predictable outcome, the pros in Washington did not see it coming. So much for highly paid advisors with Ivy league pedigrees. The fact that these people expected the Iraqi population to welcome us a liberators shows how disconnected the video war games are from the real world. The real Iraqi's did not behave as our Iraqi Sims predicted.

In a very real sense, Iraq is the price we pay for mistakes the British made. Mistakes we subsequently compounded. Mistakes may be a big word, and it would perhaps be better to say, decisions the British made that looked good in the short term. So good that we reinforced them. This type of shortsightedness is quite common in empires. History shows that it eventually catches up with them.

An easy way to contain the Iran problem would be to "solve" Iraq. That is getting more difficult the longer we wait. Nevertheless, the solution to the Iraq problem is very simple indeed. Except that it is tantamount to admitting a big mistake was made. And we would lose face.

Our acceptable "solution" to Iraq is a Sunni dictator. The Sunni minority is the only group that can keep the country together. And the only way a dictator from a minority group can rule is if they have a solid base of support and a deep network of informers and secret police.

Acceptable means we hold Iraq together is because it is sitting on very large oil reserves. Those reserves are crucial to us if we are to persist in our luxurious and wasteful life-style. It is part of our energy dependence. Addiction is an even better word. If Iraq were to fall apart two large groups, the Kurds and the Shi'ites, would be let loose. These groups have natural alliances that can severely upset the balance of power in the Middle East.

Power in the Middle East means oil. For us, it is best if nobody has a majority stake and if there is some tension between the parties that control it. Some tension that allows us to chose sides and keep the situation in a fluid equilibrium. Every time someone gets too powerful, we side with the others to restore the balance. Today the balance is out of whack in a rather dangerous way. That part at least, the Washington elite is getting. The other part is more difficult. It means selling another war to the public.

One thing the American public requires is wars without casualties. That is without American casualties. The solution to low casualties is high tech. It lies in cruise missiles, smart bombs, remote control vehicles, surveillance, satellites, etc. While it is unrivaled at killing the enemy with little risk to our soldiers, it is proving rather inept at solving problems. High tech surveillance may pinpoint items with uncanny accuracy, but it is very poor at reading human emotions and alliances. It sends us into never ending quagmires.

Never mind all that for now. Now the emphasis is on selling another war. A war that can sufficiently weaken the Iranians so they no longer control the region. But not so much that we enlarge the already troublesome power vacuum. A vacuum that we created by destroying Iran's enemies East and West. And for no good reason really. Other than a bit of blood thirsty revenge for 9-11. Except that it was not directed at the real perpetrators.