we have more folks, come on in

For all you worrying oil addicts out there, take heed, we received good news today. Cambridge Energy Research Associates, CERA for short, says new projects will make up for the decline in existing oil production. That decline is estimated at nearly 5% per year, although some think it is much higher than that. 5% is about as much oil as Iran supplies in one year. Not to worry, says CERA there is more oil out there and what's out there will more than make up for the declines we see.

CERA's research is surprisingly one-side. They focus on new oil and how to exploit and mine it. They do not worry about burning it. That is the "other end," the pollution and greenhouse gases, and why would we worry about that? As long as we have enough to burn who cares? Conservation is not part of their research program.

Conservation may be the mantra of the politically correct, but it is not a reality. Global demand for oil is estimated to increase by 2.3% this year alone. According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, Asia will "require" an extra million barrels a day by the end of the year. A million barrels is one eight of the current Saudi production. And given where Asia is compared to the US, there is still plenty more room for "growth."

Anyone watching the Detroit auto-show got the message. For you politicians and dreamers, we, the car producers have an array of project cars that use alternative fuels. None of these are for sale of course. We probably won't even bother building them. But now that you are here take a look at our new supercharger, our new F-150, our bigger Tundra CrewMax, our 599 GTB, our LP640 roadster, our new Viper. All heavier, bigger, and better than last year's models. And all of them need more gas, not less.

President Bush too, was quite upbeat yesterday. After discussions with the Saudi King, the president held out hope for an increase in production. That from a man who once said America was addicted to oil. Clearly nobody was listening very carefully then. Or if they did, it was with the drooling lips and expecting eyes of addicts putting up with a little "keep it safe" lecture from the dealer. Anything to please the man as long as we get our fix at the end of it.

And in yesterday's column in the New York Times, economics professor Steven Landsburg explained to us how we are all better off when we outsource America's jobs to other countries. We save money he said and why would we want to make that illegal? It smacks of bullying and it is un-American. He used the M-word, morality. And when technical people do that, you know you are in trouble.

What Steven did not mention is the great enabler of all these savings: cheap oil. Cheap oil makes it possible to produce elsewhere and ship here. Cheap oil makes it possible to produce food in an unsustainable way. But that will only be true until the reality catches up with us. And in one form or another it will. And I suspect, quite a bit sooner than we think too.