peak oil (again)

Peak oil made it into the local news yesterday. In a Special Report, KTVU described "peak oil" as a phenomenon that is gaining adherents everywhere. It was described as an "apocalyptic" vision with severe shortages in food, medicine, technology, and the like. An end of the world scenario. KTVU then dug up a UC Berkeley economics professor to call it all "laughable" and "untrue." Although the professor did agree that global warming was a problem. When it comes to fossil fuel however, he thought there would be plenty to go around for a long time to come. Even when oil runs out we will be able to produce liquid hydrocarbons to feed our energy "needs," he said.

I for one, tend to agree that it is unlikely we will run out of energy anytime soon. I have said before that pollution is much more likely to do us in. But that does not mean we won't be in trouble if oil gets more expensive. In the simplest scenario, prices for liquid fuel -the kind you need in transportation- will go so high that everyone will be forced to cut back severely. Given how our need for liquid fuel is embedded in our infrastructure, that alone could cause major upheavals. Think the housing market is bad now ? What if suddenly all those nice suburban homes become worthless ? Because modern suburbia is built on the premise of cheap liquid fuel. Without it, all those houses have no value. To say nothing of the houses in the middle of the desert. These too are in for a major re-valuation. Negative numbers come to mind.

Humans are very good problem solvers. Especially when the problem is easily perceived. Lack of oil is such a problem. While it may not go down without some major hardship and pain, it is unlikely to cause an apocalyptic scenario. The same cannot be said for insidious problems such as global warming, where the true cause is much more open to debate and the link much more indirect. Warming is especially problematic because it is difficult to imagine during adverse weather events, of which there are plenty. Nobody is very keen on global warming during a snowstorm.

Pollution is a difficult matter because its effects are very stealthy. Crop yields go down slowly, driving prices up and causing shortages. Diseases spread to newer locales. Food shortages make people more susceptible to disease. Salt water intrusion and flooding destroy valuable crop land. Wind erosion removes top soils. Weather becomes more erratic leading to occasional heavy losses. All this happens slowly and in the background. It hardly ever makes front page news. And to make matters even more confusing, a ton of 'noise' is superimposed on the long term trends. The noise often makes it difficult to see what is really happening. And it gives the naysayers plenty of ammunition that can be put to good use in politics.

But the most dangerous result is the sudden appearance of positive feedback. Entering what is known as a vicious circle of negative effects. (Ironically enough I found that the Wall Street Journal called the current vicious circle in housing an example of negative feedback. Negative no doubt refers to the negative outcomes such as falling prices. Because the phenomenon described was a clear example of positive feedback. At least in the engineering sense of the word. Maybe economists have a different definition?)

In any case, positive feedback can appear suddenly and unexpectedly. When it does, disastrous outcomes accelerate quickly. Then it is often too late to fix things and perfectly reasonable fixes may now only make matters worse. Because we entered into a different regime. One in which the old rules no longer apply. This is a situation humans are not very good at solving. For one, the number of good solutions is now very small and dwindling even faster. For another, drastic counterintuitive actions are needed fast. Last but not least, time is a major enemy. The latter is especially true where for humans. Because humans have a huge built-in lag time. Their life-span and their time to maturity are very long. Coupled with huge numbers it is a recipe for disaster. These scenarios can lead to apocalyptic endings. You have been warned.