population bubble

In 1950 there were an estimated 540 million people in China, virtually the same as in Europe. India had a mere 350 million while the US stood at 150 million. The total world population was at 2.5 billion, nearly half of which lived in China and Europe. What came next is generally referred to as the baby boom in the West. In history texts the baby boom is often seen as a reaction to the loss of life in World War II. The data do not mesh very well with this view. US losses were relatively small, at less than half a million, yet the US population doubled in size in the next 56 years.

In Europe, where significant losses of nearly 50 million had occurred, only 250 million were added. That means Europe only grew by 50% or half as much as the US. The real population boom happened in Asia, where the impact of war had been relatively small. From 1950 to 2000 China's population more than doubled to 1.3 billion. India's population skyrocketed to over 1 billion and is expected to keep growing and eventually overtake China. In China growth was so rapid that authorities had to step in and force mandatory birth control. China's growth has leveled off at 1.7 or below replacement, but India is still far about replacement rates at nearly 2.8.

A better explanation for this furious growth is oil. The exploitation of this new energy source enabled many things, chief among them a near doubling in agricultural productivity. Suddenly there was a mountain of food and a means to distribute it relatively cheaply. And more food quickly translated in more babies surviving to adulthood. The change was greatest in those countries with untapped potential. And that included the US and much of SouthEast Asia. Europe was densely populated to begin with so the impact here was far less pronounced.

The agricultural miracle has been called the "Green Revolution." Its key ingredients were pesticides and fertilizers. But one should not forget the plentiful oil used to power farm machinery, irrigation systems, and refrigeration and shipment of food. The Green Revolution was seen as a great victory for science and technology. It coincided with many other breakthroughs that changed people's lives in rather dramatic ways. These include the automobile, radios and TV's and even some fearful weapons such as the atomic bomb. Many of these had been developed decades earlier but the late 1940s and early 1950s were the period of market acceptance. The war and its aftermath played a great role in worldwide distribution.

As is common during such times, people quickly moved to integrate the new amenities into everyday life. Cities were built that were predicated on the automobile and oil. Layouts that had never been seen before and that would not have been viable earlier on, quickly became the norm. And nowhere was this more obvious than in California and the American West, areas where there was little history to stand in the way of progress.

Excess production in the West fed the growing armies of people in the East. And in return, the East quickly provided cheap labor to make trinkets for us. Industrial production started to shift Eastward and the economies in the West quickly moved into Services and other intangibles. All the while the world ran up a big credit card bill. A bill written in pollution, resource depletion, and greenhouse gas production. A boom time economy has developed that is dependent on cheap oil and all the benefits cheap oil can bring.

Unfortunately, it is not sustainable. But it is also not hard to see why people would resist letting go of it. And why people think so highly of scientific breakthroughs and technological solutions. The latter however were merely clever tricks to better exploit the true driver of the bubble: oil.

To keep going we won't just have to find another source. We will also have to deal with the residuals left over from the previous party.