false modesty

There are those who believe we are too puny to matter on this planet. They are usually the ones who only display this type of modesty when it comes to arguments about pollution or global warming. When it comes to showing of their cars, boats, mansions, and other toys, they are not nearly so modest. In essence what they want is to be left alone in their mecca of over-consumption. 

Consider this. The US has 442 million acres of cropland according to the USDA. Of that, about 77% or 340 million acres is used for crops. That works out to about 1.13 acres per person. Using traditional farming methods, it is estimated that 1.2 acres is needed to feed a person for one year. This is a rough estimate of course and depends on location, climate, whether the person is a vegetarian or a meat eater, and what you define as "traditional farming." Modern farming does a lot better, unless you figure in all the hidden costs.

Those costs include depleting aquifers, fertilizer and pesticide runoffs, petroleum products used, gas, etc. Some have estimated we put in about 10 calories for every calorie of food we grow. But apart from water it seems we can at least keep doing this for a while longer.

Crop yields have jumped dramatically since the so-called green revolution of the 50's. Estimates are that yields jumped by an order of magnitude after world war II due to the increased use of fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation. That, by the way was what people meant when they said the "green revolution." It turned the country green.

In 2002, an irrigated acre of land yielded 4,260 pounds (1,932 kgs) of wheat on average. Barley yields are comparable, while oats yield half as much and corn about twice as much. A rough estimate says that one acre of wheat could feed 4-5 adults for a year if they were lean vegetarians. If they were lean meat eaters only about 1 person per year could be supported for every acre.

Not surprisingly, the US is the world's biggest food exporter. According to some estimates the income derived from food exports is close to $40 billion per year. However, if the population keeps growing at present levels, the US will cease to be a food exporter by 2025 or there about. All the land will be needed to feed the people living here. By 2050, food shortages will start affecting the population at large.

The point is not to paint a doomsday scenario. Clearly there are many ways to avoid disaster. And quite frankly it won't affect everyone. Already more than 10% of the US population or 35 million do not have "food safety" (i.e. they go hungry), and we are still exporting food to other countries. Call it the free market.

The point is that we are incredibly close to disaster. And given the enormous lag times in the system, we could cross a boundary and not notice it until it is too late. So much for modesty and laissez faire.