Monday, November 26, 2007

a politically correct manhattan project

The Department of Energy, big oil, and Silicon Valley venture capitalists are banding together with public universities in a bid to save the world. Given the scope of funding and the lofty goal what better name could be given than a new Manhattan Project? It should be noted that earlier on DOE thought the genome project would be its new Manhattan Project. That one was going to save us by curing all illnesses. 

Unfortunately for DOE it only lasted until NIH and Congress took it away from them. And what has become of curing all illnesses you ask? Well, we are working on it. For now, let's just say that the genome's impact on drug development has been rather puny and insignificant. But like the genome project there is no doubt that someone is going to make a lot of money on this new new Manhattan project. And some already are. 

If you haven't caught on yet, don't despair. Soon enough you will be inundated with the latest fad, called biofuels. Not the corny alcohol variety that has MidWest farmers and politicians all excited. Not even the more ambitious but far less feasible cellulosic alcohol flavor that the President is so keen on. No, nothing short of growing real gasoline to feed our ever expanding appetite. To put it in ExxonMobil terms:"as our economy grows, Americans are demanding more gasoline." To do what exactly is not really clear. Maybe it can keep all those foreclosed properties warm?

The whole biofuel rage is totally misplaced. Its main impact on global warming may be that it will make food so expensive that fewer people will be able to afford to drive around much. It will also do very little for our energy independence. Because there are two sides to our energy demand. One is to ensure that we have enough oil to power our increasingly unrealistic life-style. But the other, equally if not more important one is to make sure nobody else does. You don't think so?

Suppose the US suddenly stopped importing oil. Would the oil producing countries and companies just fold? You bet. They would sell their oil to the highest bidder. And plentiful cheap oil would easily propel another nation into superpower status. But don't worry, it won't ever happen because we cannot afford to let it happen. And if it slipped by us, well there is always the long awaited world war 3.

But let's go back to the more realistic global warming scenario for a second. Although it presents a real threat with potentially disastrous outcomes, it is but one symptom of a much bigger problem: overpopulation. Overpopulation is real but it is to some extent relative because it depends on life-style. However, if we just elevated China to our current standard of living we would be in serious jeopardy. That is how close we are to "the edge."

Given our desire to live large we are quickly approaching the dreaded "limits to growth." If that sounds like the much maligned Club of Rome to you, you are right. But before you burst out in uncontrollable laughter, remember he who laughs last. The way things are going, the predictions of the infamous Club of Rome will likely come true. To be continued, as they say in Hollywood.


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