the biofuel hoax

The new remedy for global warming may achieve its goal in an unexpected fashion. Let's be nice and assume the problem is due to shortsightedness. Although some not so favorably inclined may argue it was the hidden intent of its promoters all along. Mass starvation is the inevitable outcome. And that is sure to reduce the impact of humanity on the environment in a dramatic way. Furthermore, mass starvation is the only way the biofuel craze can deliver on its promises. And in case you think this is just another pessimistic doomsday prediction, it is already happening.

Food prices around the world are skyrocketing. While that may make Americans grumpy and cause them to cut their discretionary (read wasteful) spending just a bit, the same cannot be said for people who are poor to begin with. They actually starve to death. If not directly through lack of protein or calories, then indirectly through wasting with increased susceptibility to disease. In some cases, wars and genocide due to competition for scarce resources will accelerate the process.

The new bill in Congress is about to make things a lot worse. But then again, it is intensely pleasing to the Iowa farmer and we are about to enter an election year. It also sounds really good. We are reducing our dependence on foreign oil. Given that we probably waste half the oil we buy and that we only import half, the easy solution would be to consume less. If we all drove sensible cars, and drove less our energy dependence would cease to exist. But the issue of mideast oil is more "complex" than that. Not only do we want it, we also want to prevent others from getting it. And what better way to do that than to use it ourselves? But, let's go back to biofuels for now.

The new bill would increase the mandate for renewable fuels to a striking 36 billion gallons by 2022. Some would be made from waste or byproducts of corn. But nearly half or fifteen billion gallons will be made from edible corn. That is sure to accomplish two things: one, farmers will grow more corn and two, corn prices will skyrocket. Both are already happening. It will just get worse. Corn prices doubled in the last few years. And so did the price of other food items.

Rising corn prices are a very serious problem for several reasons. First, corn is used ubiquitously in food. From corn meal, corn muffins, high-fructose corn syrup, to corn fed beef and poultry raised on corn. There are thousands of food and feed products that are derived from corn. Second, food prices in the US set the tone for food prices elsewhere. That is because the US is a major trader in food. It both exports and imports huge quantities of food and feed, and its demands and prices have global implications. Trends in the US affect what farmers around the world grow.

And last but not least, growing food in the modern world is an energy-losing proposition. It currently takes 4-10 calories of fossil fuel energy to grow one calorie of food. If that sounds confusing, let's put it this way: we need to put in more energy than we get out. When it comes to feeding humans you could make a plausible argument to defend this practice. But when you are trying to grow fuel and you use more fuel than you get out, something is amiss.

That energy we put in is in the form of petroleum-derived pesticides and fertilizers. But it is also in oil-driven irrigation, spraying, farm equipment, harvesting, transport, and processing. For a highly processed item such as ketchup, the energy put in may be close to 100 to 1. For ethanol production it is around 4-to-1. But even 4-to-1 is bad. Very bad. If you paid me $4 for every $1 I give you back, what would you think ? No system working on such principle can persist for very long. And when it comes to reducing greenhouse gases, you better forget it. More greenhouse gases are produced than are saved. The net is a big loss. A fourfold loss at best !

And when it comes to agricultural land, we are already close to break-even. By 2025 we will need all the land we have to feed our own people. The new biofuel bill will only expedite this outcome. And that means that not only will we lose our $40 billion in export revenues, but the world will lose a source of food. And most Western industrialized countries already import part of their needed food. Japan imports over half, and the UK imports nearly 30%. Surely they will not go starving without a fight. The whole biofuel hoax is doing nothing more than wasting more energy and setting us up for a big fight with developing nations such as India and China.