new year's eve

Time to reflect on 2007 and all that happened. It seems political events are once again headlines. Unrest, killings, war, famine, genocide, and oil. Maybe a line here and there about the climate change and global warming. But very little really about what is really happening to us. The dwindling resources and ecological disasters that underly the unrest and the wars and the games people play. The real events.

As we drove by scores and scores of new housing developments on both sides of the border yesterday, I couldn't help but wondering who will buy all these houses. Apparently 30% or so of the current housing, that is the market affected by the subprime crisis, is investment properties and second homes. That "market" is already over in the sense that these house were bought before the crisis hit, and paid for by banks, that will now have to either foreclose them or take losses. It does not include all the new construction we saw. That construction got caught in the maelstrom when trouble hit. And there is plenty of it and very few buyers. For sale and Price reduced signs are everywhere.

Not to mention that most areas we travel to are lacking or short on water already. No worries for the Jack in the Box next to our hotel though, where the sprinklers were irrigating the roadway yesterday. Waste is everywhere.

When it comes to construction, Mexico is starting to look like Irvine. Housing tracts that look every bit as great as the ones that make up orange county are now coming up along Tijuana and Rosarito beaches. Homes everywhere, from the deserts around Palm Springs, the Coachella Valley, to the playas of Baja. Do people realize that the baby boomers are aging and that there are fewer people to replace them ? And especially, fewer people with money to buy such expensive stuff. The US most likely will not stop growing due to immigration and fertile immigrant families. But growth will slow down and the newcomers don't have the money that the baby boomers did.

Lest you worry about slowing growth, be assured there is not of it enough to mitigate the climate effects though. But enough to make turmoil and cause a serious economic downturn. Which will help somewhat with the climate issues ironically enough.