dark skies

Flying is seen by many as one of the great triumphs of the 20th century. The wish to take to the skies and fly away is as old as humanity. And these days, people are taking to the skies in droves. The FAA forecast predicts 768 million passengers this year, and more than one billion passengers by 2015. By 2020 the total will reach 1.2 billion. That translates into 81.1 million take-offs, up from 62.5 million today. The growth is equivalent to adding two major metropolitan airports each year for the next 12 years.

Not just more flights and more airline fuel mind you. We also lose land to grow food or sustain trees. Given that some airports are the size of Manhattan that really matters. To say nothing of the surrounding infrastructure that follows. In return for land we get more concrete, more buildings that need round the clock heating and cooling, more parking lots, more cars, and more driving. And that is just for commercial flights. The report also predicts general aviation will increase by 59% by 2020. While the number is much smaller, these guys more than make up for it by their added inefficiency.

According to the FAA, "Aviation is a critical part of our national economy, providing for the movement of people and goods throughout the world, enabling economic growth." It also says that since the 1970's there has been a six-fold increase in the mobility provided by the US transportation system. And during that same time, there was a 60% improvement in aircraft fuel efficiency and a 95% reduction in the number of people impacted by noise.

So all is well it appears. Flying translates to freedom and growth, two key indicators of success, and its astonishing expansion proves as much. And the trend is expected to continue in the near future. Until we hit the wall I suppose. Unlike what they tell you in history classes, humans never seem to learn from their past mistakes. The successive stock market bubbles illustrate that point quite well. Like a stock market bubble this type of growth is not sustainable forever.

Note that the expansion in flying dwarfs the gains in fuel economy. And that has been the story throughout. Fuel efficiency for cars and trucks has also gone up dramatically, but its effect has been totally negative. The supposed gains were more than wiped out by bigger engines and heavier cars. To say nothing of the growth in the number of cars and the number of miles driven. It appears people always want to be somewhere else. What it is they are running towards or away from is anybody's guess. No doubt this restlessness must be due to happiness. Or is it?