deceptive resilience

Whenever disaster strikes one of two scenarios unfold depending on where it happens. In poor societies, the casualty rates are very high, the devastation is widespread and may continue to grow in the following days and weeks. In such areas, recovery is extremely slow. People often keep dying for weeks or months afterwards. The landscape shows signs of devastation for decades to come. Similar disasters in civilized societies on the other hand are remarkably different. Casualties are several orders of magnitude lower and cease within hours after the incident. The devastation is highly contained and quickly controlled. Recovery is swift and efficient.

It is clear that advanced societies are very resilient when it comes to acute events. We can cope with large scale disaster. Our societies are better prepared, they can respond quicker and they have the resources to remedy problems. Even a disaster as devastating as Katrina is followed by a relatively quick recovery. That is if you take into account that Katrina hit two Americas. One America, that of the thriving middle class, living in the touristy French quarter and surrounding areas, recovered almost overnight. The other America, that of the poor and disenfranchised is still suffering much like a third world nation would. Katrina exposed the widening fault line in American society. But that is another story altogether.

The rich America is where we live. There we may get the impression that we can deal with everything that gets thrown at us. And that is probably true. Short of a planetary scale event, we can probably survive almost any disaster and come out ahead. The same is true for any war or conflict. Even a war with the former Soviet Union would have played in our favor. No matter what the media tell you, superpowers are never really threatened by such incidents. And that may be one reason we feel so confident that global warming, global pollution, or resource depletion won't get us. It is misplaced confidence. History shows that therein lies the weakness of all empires. They over-reach and crumble from within.