overheated

With all the talk about global warming it is easy to forget the essentials. Whether or not global warming is really happening -it is-, and whether or not it is caused by us -it is-, or even whether it will have a major impact -it will-, are all secondary to the real problem:overpopulation. Since the beginning of the 20th century, human populations have started a near exponential growth. It is the fabled hockey-stick graph that investors love so much.

Global warming is but one symptom of that ever increasing population using ever more energy and resources. And guess what, the resources are limited. In many cases we are already close to the limit. That is the case for so-called renewable resources like fish and seafood. It is also true for such essentials like fresh water. But even for some minerals the "end" is in sight.

When it comes to energy we are close too, but in a different way. To persist in our ways we need access to cheap energy in portable form. Not all sources lend themselves well to solve that problem. There is energy that is easily accessible, like solar and wind, but not very portable. You cannot drive a car with solar energy. You could convert solar into electricity and use the electricity to drive the car, but the conversions are not very practical and rather wasteful too. Furthermore it takes expensive resources to implement.

There are other energy sources that are currently too expensive to mine and extract. Although as prices go up, they may become economically viable. Examples are oil in shale and sands.

But before we get into all that, it is good to remember that releasing the stored energy creates byproducts known as pollution. And pollution adds a big additional cost. And one we have up until now largely ignored. The reason why we have cheap energy is because we do not pay the full cost. In reality we probably pay less than 1/10th of the cost. Pollution and waste will do us in before we run out of energy sources.

Another side-effect is that cheap energy allows us to be wasteful with other resources as well. We can pump and spray water everywhere. We can maintain lawns, pools, and artificial lakes. We can bring water to hot deserts where it evaporates at breakneck speed. We can extract metals like aluminum and use them for soft drink cans. We can produce plastic water bottles and move water around in what is probably one of the most wasteful and irresponsible activities humans engage in. We can fly to exotic spots and drown them in refuse.

Cheap energy may allow us to live like kings, at least for now. But we are living on credit. And one day the bill will come due. And it will be paid in blood and tears.