peak oil

A movement is underway of people who think we have reached or are about to reach the maximum amount of oil production on the planet. What happens next is anybody's guess but nearly all scenarios are bad with severe disruptions in the economy, everyday life, and even survival. Peak oil is based on a theory by M. King Hubbert that dates back to 1956. Hubbert correctly predicted peak oil production for the US. That event happened in the 1970s.

Peak oil has many adherents from all stripes of life. That includes individuals who hold key positions in the oil industry. Nearly all agree that we have either reached peak oil or that it will happen within the next 20 years. Since successful mitigation requires a minimum of 20 years that means we are in big trouble. Even a 10 year head start on the peak would not give us enough time to adjust to declining production without major hiccups.

There are also those who believe peak oil is not going to happen in this century and maybe never. They are the optimists and include our friends at CERA, the research outfit previously mentioned in this blog. The optimists point at the past predictions of peak oil that turned out to be false. As early as 1920, the US Geological Survey sounded a warning that grossly underestimated the amount of oil left. They estimated it at 60 billion barrels. Today's numbers from the same agency are over 2,000 billion barrels.

One thing is for sure. Unless new oil is being formed, something that most scientists think is false, we will run out eventually. And probably much sooner than any of us like to think. We are using more oil everyday. Even though population growth has slowed there are now more people using more oil than ever before.

However, as I mentioned earlier, I think we will run into trouble before we run out of energy. There are of course many sources of energy, so I will venture that we will run into major problems even before we run out of oil. And I do think that if we keep going we will run into trouble fairly soon. Definitely before the end of the century. While it is always possible that people will come to their senses and voluntarily change, I sincerely doubt that this will happen. In my view, only natural disasters such as massive pandemics, or planet-wide turmoil -read war- could intervene in a meaningful way.

The reason for my worry is that we are currently running close to the edge in many areas. We have embraced a life-style that is not easy to change and that is totally dependent on overconsumption. Our life-style is literally embedded in stone and it is impossible to change even if people somehow wanted to. Short of abandoning our "beautiful" suburbs, or even entire cities built in the desert, there is little hope.

Furthermore, nearly all our trouble spots are densely interconnected and all are on a worldwide scale. There are few if any alternatives available once things start going wrong. We won't be able to switch to other sources of food, or find other places to dump pollution, as some earlier societies reportedly did to avoid collapse.

Several models predict an abrupt collapse without much warning. Historically speaking that seems to be the most likely scenario. It is also the one I consider the most realistic.

Without warning in this context means without overt trouble or change. There are plenty of warning signs and plenty of warning calls, but all currently go unheeded. One can ignore the token efforts of installing solar panels, buying hybrid cars, and eating organic produce. These are nothing more than window dressing. Our society at large has not changed. If anything it is more determined than ever to stay the course. Witness the recent Detroit auto show. Gas guzzlers dominate the picture, while imaginary feel-good alternative fuel prototypes keep the guilt at bay.

Abrupt in this context means over a span of 15-30 years. Within this time-frame the standard of living could drop from its present Western level to below that of your average poor country in Central America. I suspect it may be worse. And that is the good scenario.